TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12362963
Played Aug 5Finished
Martin Filipek
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11131181151210––
Milan Tlusty
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:41 and never touched — 75.5% is still 75.5%
Graded at full timeMilan Tlusty to win
75.5%
75.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMartin Filipek above · Milan Tlusty below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 81 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Milan Tlusty at 75.5%
81 points played in total.
H2H Martin Filipek 8–21 Milan Tlusty Martin Filipek has won 8 of their 29 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:41What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Tlusty
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-21 in 29
Tlusty
Wrong
gap of 13 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Filipek 1483 vs Tlusty 1576
Tlusty
Wrong
both rated, 93 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Filipek 40% vs Tlusty 80%
Tlusty
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Filipek 50% vs Tlusty 80%
Tlusty
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Filipek +1 · Tlusty +3
Tlusty
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Tlusty) · live re-read · sealed at 76% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tlusty form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFilipek 2.63 / Tlusty 1.44
Signal prob.26% / 75%
Edge (Tlusty)+10.0pp
TT Cup · #12362963
Filipek2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 88 of 204
Down 0–1, comes back26% 26 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 52
Tlusty1.44
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 106 of 173
Up 2–0, closes it87% 40 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it75% 69 of 92
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFilipek4wins
AwayTlusty6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderTlusty leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFilipek40%2 of 5
AwayTlusty60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Filipek5Tlusty5n = 10split evenly
S2Filipek5Tlusty5n = 10split evenly
S3Filipek7Tlusty3n = 10Filipek took 7 of 10
S4Filipek2Tlusty7n = 9Tlusty took 7 of 9
S5Filipek2Tlusty3n = 5Tlusty took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricFilipekTlustyF − TBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.143.3−2.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFilipekTlustyBasisWin rate · lifetime236 / 540 vs 294 / 55143.7%53.4%236 / 540 vs 294 / 551Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.338.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TlustyFilipek 2.63/Tlusty 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
74.5%
Tlusty · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Filipek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 5 · 09:25M. Filipek—111111123M. Tlusty—1385101
WJul 31 · 07:55M. Filipek—115119113M. Tlusty—81181172
LJul 30 · 11:25M. Filipek—611961M. Tlusty—11811113
LJul 11 · 14:55M. Filipek—116118102M. Tlusty—611811123
WJun 9 · 08:55M. Filipek—971111123M. Tlusty—111166102
LJun 1 · 14:03M. Filipek—101113662M. Tlusty—1261111113
LJun 1 · 12:25M. Filipek—1431281M. Tlusty—121114113
LMay 14 · 11:55M. Filipek—11812542M. Tlusty—9111011113
LMay 12 · 11:25M. Filipek—811681M. Tlusty—11711113
WMay 8 · 16:25M. Filipek—1112123M. Tlusty—810100
M. Filipek10
WSep 7 · 10:04R. Muller1.836470M. Filipek1.831111113LSep 7 · 09:25M. Filipek1.831196101F. Balcar1.8361111123LSep 7 · 07:55R. Muller1.91111311113M. Filipek1.80915471WSep 7 · 07:25D. Pasek1.83101211131M. Filipek1.8312146153WSep 5 · 18:35J. Dvorak1.538111011152M. Filipek2.38115129173WSep 5 · 17:25M. Filipek2.2011115123Z. Zahradka1.619911101LSep 5 · 15:55J. Dvorak1.4012118113M. Filipek2.751071171WSep 5 · 15:25D. Tichy1.731812861M. Filipek2.00201011113LSep 4 · 14:04P. Chlumsky1.44111110113M. Filipek2.63891251LSep 4 · 12:55P. Chlumsky1.5091511143M. Filipek2.5011139121
M. Tlusty10
WAug 5 · 10:29M. Filipek2.251013991M. Tlusty1.57121111113WAug 5 · 08:25M. Tlusty1.7311811113R. Jamrich2.00611981WAug 5 · 06:55A. Kral3.00135341M. Tlusty1.36111111113WAug 4 · 14:00D. Sykora1.504119101M. Tlusty2.5011711123LAug 4 · 12:20D. Sykora1.531111113M. Tlusty2.385570WAug 4 · 11:50A. Rek1.4411781142M. Tlusty2.63711115113WAug 4 · 10:50M. Tlusty3.40211311113O. Varecka1.3011311972WAug 3 · 18:00J. Dvorak1.855780M. Tlusty1.851111113WAug 3 · 16:50D. Tichy2.201191081M. Tlusty1.6181112113LAug 3 · 15:50M. Tlusty1.731131061J. Dvorak2.0081112113
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