TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13082017
Played Sep 5Finished
Adam Martin Rek
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811611116611––
Michal Brozek
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:03 and never touched — 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeMichal Brozek to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAdam Martin Rek above · Michal Brozek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 70 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Michal Brozek at 62.5%
70 points played in total.
H2H Adam Martin Rek 12–25 Michal Brozek Adam Martin Rek has won 12 of their 37 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:03What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Brozek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-25 in 37
Brozek
Correct
gap of 13 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rek 1679 vs Brozek 1693
Brozek
Correct
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rek 40% vs Brozek 80%
Brozek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rek 60% vs Brozek 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rek +1 · Brozek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Brozek) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Brozek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRek 2.50 / Brozek 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Brozek)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13082017
Rek2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog57% won 39 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back41% 11 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 13
Brozek1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite58% won 157 of 269
Up 2–0, closes it87% 82 of 94
Up 1–0, closes it78% 115 of 147
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRek5wins
AwayBrozek5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRek80%4 of 5
AwayBrozek80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rek5Brozek5n = 10split evenly
S2Rek4Brozek6n = 10Brozek took 6 of 10
S3Rek4Brozek6n = 10Brozek took 6 of 10
S4Rek3Brozek3n = 6split evenly
S5Rek2Brozek1n = 3Rek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricRekBrozekR − BBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.636.8−0.2per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRekBrozekBasisWin rate · lifetime313 / 540 vs 539 / 103058%52.3%313 / 540 vs 539 / 1030Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BrozekRek 2.50/Brozek 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.7%
Brozek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Brozek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 20 · 16:55A. Rek—10350M. Brozek—1211113
LAug 15 · 20:25A. Rek—8650M. Brozek—1111113
WAug 7 · 13:49A. Rek—1111810113M. Brozek—87111252
WAug 7 · 12:50A. Rek—1411113M. Brozek—12780
LJun 14 · 21:20A. Rek—5101171M. Brozek—11128113
LJun 14 · 19:20A. Rek—11941192M. Brozek—611116113
WJun 12 · 08:25A. Rek—1111109113M. Brozek—75121192
WMay 15 · 16:20A. Rek—11911113M. Brozek—811861
LMay 6 · 09:55A. Rek—101370M. Brozek—1215113
WMay 6 · 08:55A. Rek—81111113M. Brozek—115941
A. Rek10
WSep 5 · 22:03O. Fiklik2.2510890A. Rek1.571211113LSep 5 · 20:55A. Rek1.61811861O. Fiklik2.2011411113LSep 5 · 19:55A. Rek1.83119781M. Kulisek1.8381111113WSep 4 · 09:59J. Vonasek2.20111951A. Rek1.6191111113LSep 4 · 09:25A. Rek2.50611631J. Benak1.5011811113LSep 4 · 07:55J. Vonasek2.38781211113A. Rek1.53111110842LSep 4 · 07:25V. Nadvornik1.8381111113A. Rek1.83118871WSep 2 · 13:50A. Rek1.5011911113J. Vonasek2.40711871WSep 2 · 12:50J. Vonasek2.38641161A. Rek1.5311114113WSep 2 · 11:50A. Rek1.501413113V. Jr2.50121180
M. Brozek10
LSep 5 · 22:35M. Brozek1.751212881M. Kulisek1.95141011113LSep 5 · 21:25M. Kulisek2.0017101111113M. Brozek1.7319126672WSep 5 · 20:25M. Brozek1.5711711113O. Fiklik2.25311871WSep 4 · 14:00D. Hyza1.90135101162M. Brozek1.801111127113LSep 4 · 12:50D. Hyza1.919111211113M. Brozek1.80111310962WSep 4 · 11:50M. Brozek1.611114113O. Fiklik2.2091260WSep 4 · 10:20A. Langer2.5058100M. Brozek1.501111123WSep 3 · 10:09M. Brozek2.251114611113J. Benak1.5791611972LSep 3 · 08:55J. Kocab1.73111011113M. Brozek2.00512341LSep 3 · 08:25P. Benes1.80101111133M. Brozek1.911289111
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.