TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13067842
Played Sep 3Finished
Jan Kocab
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1151012113114––
Michal Brozek
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:08 and never touched — 56.3% is still 56.3%
Graded at full timeJan Kocab to win
56.3%
56.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingJan Kocab above · Michal Brozek below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 67 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Jan Kocab at 56.3%
67 points played in total.
H2H Jan Kocab 15–9 Michal Brozek Michal Brozek has won 9 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:08What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kocab
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-9 in 24
Kocab
Correct
gap of 6 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kocab 1514 vs Brozek 1690
Brozek
Wrong
both rated, 176 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kocab 20% vs Brozek 80%
Brozek
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kocab 30% vs Brozek 70%
Brozek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kocab -3 · Brozek -1
Kocab
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kocab) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Brozek form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKocab 1.73 / Brozek 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kocab)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13067842
Kocab1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite63% won 51 of 81
Up 2–0, closes it93% 26 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it85% 41 of 48
Brozek2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
100%takes the first set · 10 of 10
As underdog44% won 83 of 188
Down 0–1, comes back17% 15 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKocab7wins
AwayBrozek3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKocab leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKocab100%6 of 6
AwayBrozek75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kocab6Brozek4n = 10Kocab took 6 of 10
S2Kocab5Brozek5n = 10split evenly
S3Kocab7Brozek3n = 10Kocab took 7 of 10
S4Kocab6Brozek1n = 7Kocab took 6 of 7
S5Kocab1Brozek2n = 3Brozek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKocabBrozekK − BBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.732.4+7.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKocabBrozekBasisWin rate · lifetime124 / 258 vs 538 / 102748.1%52.4%124 / 258 vs 538 / 1027Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.537.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KocabKocab 1.73/Brozek 2.00
Hit
What we said
54%
Kocab · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kocab won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 07:25J. Kocab—1091111113M. Brozek—12117462
LAug 28 · 14:25J. Kocab—11141182M. Brozek—117116113
WAug 28 · 13:25J. Kocab—1111133M. Brozek—86110
WAug 24 · 07:55J. Kocab—1211113M. Brozek—10440
LAug 14 · 20:50J. Kocab—121111892M. Brozek—147911113
WAug 10 · 12:55J. Kocab—11411113M. Brozek—411541
WAug 8 · 09:25J. Kocab—11911113M. Brozek—511541
WAug 3 · 13:25J. Kocab—111111113M. Brozek—413951
LJul 9 · 06:55J. Kocab—106110M. Brozek—1211133
WJul 5 · 07:55J. Kocab—11117113M. Brozek—831151
J. Kocab10
LSep 3 · 10:40P. Benes1.5711611133J. Kocab2.259117111LSep 3 · 07:55J. Kocab1.83811911102J. Benak1.83113115123LSep 3 · 06:55J. Kocab2.10591171P. Benes1.6711116113LSep 1 · 10:30P. Benes1.731112113J. Kocab2.0051030WSep 1 · 09:25J. Kocab1.7311711113D. Vesecky2.00211761LSep 1 · 07:55P. Benes1.831112113J. Kocab1.8361080WSep 1 · 07:25M. Brozek2.3812117462J. Kocab1.531091111113LAug 31 · 14:15P. Benes1.7311117113J. Kocab2.00881171LAug 31 · 13:25J. Kocab3.401111111092M. Cerny1.30513812113WAug 31 · 11:55D. Vesecky2.10714461J. Kocab1.67111211113
M. Brozek10
LSep 5 · 22:35M. Brozek1.751212881M. Kulisek1.95141011113LSep 5 · 21:25M. Kulisek2.0017101111113M. Brozek1.7319126672WSep 5 · 20:25M. Brozek1.5711711113O. Fiklik2.25311871WSep 5 · 18:55A. Rek2.50861161M. Brozek1.5011116113WSep 4 · 14:00D. Hyza1.90135101162M. Brozek1.801111127113LSep 4 · 12:50D. Hyza1.919111211113M. Brozek1.80111310962WSep 4 · 11:50M. Brozek1.611114113O. Fiklik2.2091260WSep 4 · 10:20A. Langer2.5058100M. Brozek1.501111123WSep 3 · 10:09M. Brozek2.251114611113J. Benak1.5791611972LSep 1 · 07:25M. Brozek2.3812117462J. Kocab1.531091111113
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