TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13058249
Played Sep 1Finished
Pavel Benes
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1151210113––––
Jan Kocab
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:06 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePavel Benes to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Benes above · Jan Kocab below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-3
Point 52 set 3, 11-3 — our read held Pavel Benes at 54.0%
52 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Benes 17–21 Jan Kocab Pavel Benes has won 17 of their 38 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:06What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Benes
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-21 in 38
Kocab
Wrong
gap of 4 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Benes 1714 vs Kocab 1524
Benes
Correct
both rated, 190 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benes 60% vs Kocab 40%
Benes
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benes 40% vs Kocab 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Benes -1 · Kocab +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Benes)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenes 1.73 / Kocab 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Benes)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13058249
Benes1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 83 of 148
Up 2–0, closes it93% 40 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it74% 57 of 77
Kocab2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 25 of 69
Down 0–1, comes back20% 8 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBenes8wins
AwayKocab2wins
1 of 10 to a deciderBenes leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenes100%7 of 7
AwayKocab66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benes7Kocab3n = 10Benes took 7 of 10
S2Benes8Kocab2n = 10Benes took 8 of 10
S3Benes7Kocab3n = 10Benes took 7 of 10
S4Benes4Kocab0n = 4Benes took 4 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBenesKocabB − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match35.929.7+6.2per matchSweeps51+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenesKocabBasisWin rate · lifetime274 / 575 vs 126 / 26047.7%48.5%274 / 575 vs 126 / 260Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.336.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BenesBenes 1.73/Kocab 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Benes won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 07:55P. Benes—1112113J. Kocab—61080
WAug 31 · 14:15P. Benes—11117113J. Kocab—881171
WAug 31 · 11:25P. Benes—1111113J. Kocab—8880
WAug 25 · 13:53P. Benes—11711113J. Kocab—811491
WAug 25 · 12:55P. Benes—1111113J. Kocab—9550
LAug 24 · 07:25P. Benes—71360J. Kocab—1115113
WAug 21 · 09:25P. Benes—41111113J. Kocab—118971
WAug 16 · 14:50P. Benes—1111113J. Kocab—7590
WAug 14 · 21:35P. Benes—1111113J. Kocab—5730
LAug 14 · 19:20P. Benes—615101182J. Kocab—1113129113
P. Benes10
WSep 3 · 10:40P. Benes1.5711611133J. Kocab2.259117111WSep 3 · 09:25J. Benak1.73131111492P. Benes2.00154711113WSep 3 · 08:25P. Benes1.80101111133M. Brozek1.911289111WSep 3 · 06:55J. Kocab2.10591171P. Benes1.6711116113LSep 2 · 14:25P. Benes2.6010412111M. Cerny1.45121110133WSep 2 · 13:25D. Vesecky1.409630P. Benes2.751111113WSep 2 · 12:25P. Benes2.751131011113M. Cerny1.4041112952WSep 2 · 10:55J. Zacharda1.7378120P. Benes2.001111143LSep 1 · 08:55P. Benes1.80611811102M. Brozek1.91118114123WSep 1 · 07:55P. Benes1.831112113J. Kocab1.8361080
J. Kocab10
LSep 3 · 10:40P. Benes1.5711611133J. Kocab2.259117111WSep 3 · 08:55J. Kocab1.73111011113M. Brozek2.00512341LSep 3 · 07:55J. Kocab1.83811911102J. Benak1.83113115123LSep 3 · 06:55J. Kocab2.10591171P. Benes1.6711116113WSep 1 · 09:25J. Kocab1.7311711113D. Vesecky2.00211761LSep 1 · 07:55P. Benes1.831112113J. Kocab1.8361080WSep 1 · 07:25M. Brozek2.3812117462J. Kocab1.531091111113LAug 31 · 14:15P. Benes1.7311117113J. Kocab2.00881171LAug 31 · 13:25J. Kocab3.401111111092M. Cerny1.30513812113WAug 31 · 11:55D. Vesecky2.10714461J. Kocab1.67111211113
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