TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13067857
Played Sep 3Finished
Jan Benak
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1315114117411911
Pavel Benes
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:08 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Benak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJan Benak above · Pavel Benes below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 96 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Jan Benak at 54.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Jan Benak 19–17 Pavel Benes Pavel Benes has won 17 of their 36 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:08What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Benak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-17 in 36
Benak
Wrong
gap of 2 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Benak 1749 vs Benes 1762
Benes
Correct
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benak 40% vs Benes 80%
Benes
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benak 40% vs Benes 80%
Benes
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Benak +1 · Benes +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Benak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benes form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenak 1.73 / Benes 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Benak)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13067857
Benak1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 33 of 56
Up 2–0, closes it77% 10 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it77% 17 of 22
Benes2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog34% won 49 of 143
Down 0–1, comes back19% 15 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBenak4wins
AwayBenes6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderBenes leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenak50%2 of 4
AwayBenes66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benak4Benes6n = 10Benes took 6 of 10
S2Benak6Benes4n = 10Benak took 6 of 10
S3Benak3Benes7n = 10Benes took 7 of 10
S4Benak3Benes4n = 7Benes took 4 of 7
S5Benak2Benes2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBenakBenesBenak − BenesBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.537.5−2.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenakBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime96 / 170 vs 274 / 57456.5%47.7%96 / 170 vs 274 / 574Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.537.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BenakBenak 1.73/Benes 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Benak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Benes won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 20 · 13:20J. Benak—911591P. Benes—11711113
WAug 20 · 11:20J. Benak—51111113P. Benes—117351
LAug 19 · 07:25J. Benak—117651P. Benes—61111113
LJul 25 · 06:55J. Benak—8020P. Benes—1111113
LJul 10 · 11:55J. Benak—98111172P. Benes—111149113
WJul 1 · 07:55J. Benak—511511113P. Benes—11411142
WApr 20 · 08:55J. Benak—1112411113P. Benes—810111352
LApr 16 · 17:50J. Benak—11133882P. Benes—4111111113
LApr 16 · 14:50J. Benak—81360P. Benes—1115113
WApr 1 · 14:20J. Benak—1411113P. Benes—12880
J. Benak10
LSep 6 · 10:24J. Benak2.104580M. Cerny1.671111113WSep 6 · 08:55D. Vesecky1.7391080J. Benak2.001112113WSep 6 · 08:25M. Cerny1.61912971J. Benak2.20111011113WSep 6 · 07:25J. Benak2.631210113143D. Bochnak1.441012811122LSep 4 · 10:28J. Benak1.7114951182V. Nadvornik2.001211113113WSep 4 · 09:25A. Rek2.50611631J. Benak1.5011811113WSep 4 · 08:25J. Benak1.731111117113V. Nadvornik2.0013951152WSep 4 · 06:55J. Vonasek2.75711120J. Benak1.401113143LSep 3 · 10:09M. Brozek2.251114611113J. Benak1.5791611972WSep 3 · 07:55J. Kocab1.83811911102J. Benak1.83113115123
P. Benes10
WSep 3 · 10:40P. Benes1.5711611133J. Kocab2.259117111WSep 3 · 08:25P. Benes1.80101111133M. Brozek1.911289111WSep 3 · 06:55J. Kocab2.10591171P. Benes1.6711116113LSep 2 · 14:25P. Benes2.6010412111M. Cerny1.45121110133WSep 2 · 13:25D. Vesecky1.409630P. Benes2.751111113WSep 2 · 12:25P. Benes2.751131011113M. Cerny1.4041112952WSep 2 · 10:55J. Zacharda1.7378120P. Benes2.001111143WSep 1 · 10:30P. Benes1.731112113J. Kocab2.0051030LSep 1 · 08:55P. Benes1.80611811102M. Brozek1.91118114123WSep 1 · 07:55P. Benes1.831112113J. Kocab1.8361080
Upcoming Matches
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