TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13085115
Played Sep 6Finished
Martin Cerny
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111210911711––
Jan Benak
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:39 and never touched — 62.1% is still 62.1%
Graded at full timeMartin Cerny to win
62.1%
62.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Cerny above · Jan Benak below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 80 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Martin Cerny at 62.1%
80 points played in total.
H2H Martin Cerny 16–6 Jan Benak Jan Benak has won 6 of their 22 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 23:39What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Cerny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-6 in 22
Cerny
Wrong
gap of 10 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cerny 1815 vs Benak 1748
Cerny
Wrong
both rated, 67 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cerny 60% vs Benak 80%
Benak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cerny 40% vs Benak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cerny -1 · Benak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Cerny)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCerny 1.61 / Benak 2.20
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Cerny)+4.4pp
TT Cup · #13085115
Cerny1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 169 of 263
Up 2–0, closes it98% 80 of 82
Up 1–0, closes it84% 116 of 138
Benak2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 14 of 33
Down 0–1, comes back25% 5 of 20
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCerny8wins
AwayBenak2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderCerny leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCerny100%7 of 7
AwayBenak66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cerny7Benak3n = 10Cerny took 7 of 10
S2Cerny6Benak4n = 10Cerny took 6 of 10
S3Cerny7Benak3n = 10Cerny took 7 of 10
S4Cerny6Benak1n = 7Cerny took 6 of 7
S5Cerny2Benak2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCernyBenakC − BBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.237.3+3.9per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernyBenakBasisWin rate · lifetime477 / 834 vs 94 / 16757.2%56.3%477 / 834 vs 94 / 167Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.039.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernyCerny 1.61/Benak 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.1%
Cerny · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Benak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 19 · 08:55M. Cerny—71114113J. Benak—1181251
LAug 7 · 12:25M. Cerny—714111132J. Benak—111688113
WAug 6 · 13:25M. Cerny—119911113J. Benak—91111882
WAug 5 · 12:20M. Cerny—11112113J. Benak—891161
WMay 25 · 18:00M. Cerny—111111113J. Benak—713571
WMay 25 · 15:55M. Cerny—1111113J. Benak—9950
LMay 11 · 09:25M. Cerny—111111292J. Benak—135911113
WMay 4 · 06:55M. Cerny—115811113J. Benak—61111892
WApr 20 · 10:35M. Cerny—1111113J. Benak—7960
WApr 20 · 07:55M. Cerny—1412113J. Benak—121090
M. Cerny10
WSep 7 · 14:30M. Cerny1.301112113J. Kocab3.1581090WSep 7 · 13:25J. Kocab3.0010680M. Cerny1.361211113WSep 7 · 12:25M. Cerny1.731111113D. Vesecky2.004460WSep 7 · 10:55J. Zacharda2.385550M. Cerny1.531111113WSep 6 · 10:24J. Benak2.104580M. Cerny1.671111113WSep 6 · 09:25D. Bochnak1.619640M. Cerny2.201111113LSep 6 · 06:55D. Vesecky1.8391111113M. Cerny1.83118381WSep 4 · 22:40O. Kadavy1.43912511112M. Cerny2.651110113133LSep 4 · 21:25M. Cerny4.3313790O. Kadavy1.201511113WSep 4 · 19:55D. Bochnak1.6711991282M. Cerny2.105111110103
J. Benak10
LSep 6 · 10:24J. Benak2.104580M. Cerny1.671111113WSep 6 · 08:55D. Vesecky1.7391080J. Benak2.001112113WSep 6 · 07:25J. Benak2.631210113143D. Bochnak1.441012811122LSep 4 · 10:28J. Benak1.7114951182V. Nadvornik2.001211113113WSep 4 · 09:25A. Rek2.50611631J. Benak1.5011811113WSep 4 · 08:25J. Benak1.731111117113V. Nadvornik2.0013951152WSep 4 · 06:55J. Vonasek2.75711120J. Benak1.401113143LSep 3 · 10:09M. Brozek2.251114611113J. Benak1.5791611972LSep 3 · 09:25J. Benak1.73131111492P. Benes2.00154711113WSep 3 · 07:55J. Kocab1.83811911102J. Benak1.83113115123
Upcoming Matches
M. Cerny
J. Benak
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