TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13084588
Played Sep 6Finished
Jan Benak
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
121010121183111412
David Bochnak
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:58 and never touched — 56.1% is still 56.1%
Graded at full timeDavid Bochnak to win
56.1%
56.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJan Benak above · David Bochnak below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 3-11
Set 5 · 14-12
Point 103 set 5, 14-12 — our read held David Bochnak at 56.1%
103 points played in total.
H2H Jan Benak 7–14 David Bochnak Jan Benak has won 7 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:58What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Bochnak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-14 in 21
Bochnak
Wrong
gap of 7 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Benak 1770 vs Bochnak 1851
Bochnak
Wrong
both rated, 81 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benak 60% vs Bochnak 40%
Benak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benak 40% vs Bochnak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Benak -1 · Bochnak +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Bochnak) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bochnak form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenak 2.63 / Bochnak 1.44
Signal prob.34% / 67%
Edge (Bochnak)+2.0pp
TT Cup · #13084588
Benak2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 17 of 37
Down 0–1, comes back24% 5 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 13
Bochnak1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 134 of 217
Up 2–0, closes it93% 66 of 71
Up 1–0, closes it80% 101 of 127
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBenak3wins
AwayBochnak7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBochnak leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenakn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayBochnak77.8%7 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benak1Bochnak9n = 10Bochnak took 9 of 10
S2Benak3Bochnak7n = 10Bochnak took 7 of 10
S3Benak7Bochnak3n = 10Benak took 7 of 10
S4Benak2Bochnak6n = 8Bochnak took 6 of 8
S5Benak2Bochnak1n = 3Benak took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBenakBochnakBenak − BochnakBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match35.841.3−5.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenakBochnakBasisWin rate · lifetime96 / 170 vs 368 / 59256.5%62.2%96 / 170 vs 368 / 592Avg sets wonper match2.22.3per matchAvg pointsper match39.338.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BochnakBenak 2.63/Bochnak 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.5%
Bochnak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Benak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 07:25J. Benak—1210113143D. Bochnak—1012811122
WMay 26 · 17:54J. Benak—71111113D. Bochnak—116811
LMay 26 · 16:55J. Benak—771161D. Bochnak—11115113
LApr 3 · 08:55J. Benak—6111121D. Bochnak—11138113
LMar 11 · 17:55J. Benak—91161162D. Bochnak—119114113
WFeb 28 · 09:55J. Benak—711157173D. Bochnak—1171311152
LFeb 13 · 11:19J. Benak—571491D. Bochnak—111112113
LFeb 13 · 09:55J. Benak—6470D. Bochnak—1111113
LOct 10 · 18:50J. Benak—96100D. Bochnak—1111123
LOct 10 · 15:55J. Benak—961141D. Bochnak—11115113
J. Benak10
LSep 6 · 10:24J. Benak2.104580M. Cerny1.671111113WSep 6 · 08:55D. Vesecky1.7391080J. Benak2.001112113WSep 6 · 08:25M. Cerny1.61912971J. Benak2.20111011113LSep 4 · 10:28J. Benak1.7114951182V. Nadvornik2.001211113113WSep 4 · 09:25A. Rek2.50611631J. Benak1.5011811113WSep 4 · 08:25J. Benak1.731111117113V. Nadvornik2.0013951152WSep 4 · 06:55J. Vonasek2.75711120J. Benak1.401113143LSep 3 · 10:09M. Brozek2.251114611113J. Benak1.5791611972LSep 3 · 09:25J. Benak1.73131111492P. Benes2.00154711113WSep 3 · 07:55J. Kocab1.83811911102J. Benak1.83113115123
D. Bochnak10
WSep 6 · 09:54D. Vesecky2.508990D. Bochnak1.501111113LSep 6 · 09:25D. Bochnak1.619640M. Cerny2.201111113WSep 6 · 07:55D. Vesecky2.25411112152D. Bochnak1.57118211173WSep 4 · 22:09D. Bochnak1.40991111123J. Zacharda2.75111194102WSep 4 · 20:55D. Bochnak1.361410511113J. Zacharda3.00121211572LSep 4 · 19:55D. Bochnak1.6711991282M. Cerny2.105111110103LSep 4 · 18:55D. Bochnak2.00611611O. Kadavy1.7311811113LSep 3 · 22:33D. Bochnak1.331491161J. Zacharda3.2516114113WSep 3 · 21:25J. Zacharda3.001011981D. Bochnak1.3612811113WSep 3 · 20:25D. Bochnak1.17611711113M. Kulisek4.5011911992
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