TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13076566
Played Sep 4Finished
David Bochnak
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1159119111210810
Martin Cerny
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:58 and never touched — 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeDavid Bochnak to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDavid Bochnak above · Martin Cerny below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 8-10
Point 96 set 5, 8-10 — our read held David Bochnak at 56.6%
96 points played in total.
H2H David Bochnak 65–55 Martin Cerny Martin Cerny has won 55 of their 120 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:58What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Bochnak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
65-55 in 120
Bochnak
Wrong
gap of 10 in 120, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bochnak 1831 vs Cerny 1824
Bochnak
Wrong
both rated, 7 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bochnak 60% vs Cerny 20%
Bochnak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bochnak 40% vs Cerny 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bochnak -2 · Cerny +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Bochnak) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cerny form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBochnak 1.67 / Cerny 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Bochnak)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13076566
Bochnak1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 130 of 210
Up 2–0, closes it93% 65 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it80% 98 of 123
Cerny2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog38% won 46 of 120
Down 0–1, comes back13% 9 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBochnak7wins
AwayCerny3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderBochnak leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBochnak100%4 of 4
AwayCerny50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bochnak4Cerny6n = 10Cerny took 6 of 10
S2Bochnak5Cerny5n = 10split evenly
S3Bochnak6Cerny4n = 10Bochnak took 6 of 10
S4Bochnak4Cerny4n = 8split evenly
S5Bochnak4Cerny0n = 4Bochnak took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBochnakCernyB − CBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.939.3+1.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBochnakCernyBasisWin rate · lifetime368 / 597 vs 475 / 83061.6%57.2%368 / 597 vs 475 / 830Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BochnakBochnak 1.67/Cerny 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Bochnak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Cerny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 18:55D. Bochnak—1011112113M. Cerny—12761182
LAug 30 · 10:33D. Bochnak—3890M. Cerny—1111113
LAug 30 · 07:25D. Bochnak—991171M. Cerny—11114113
WAug 28 · 10:30D. Bochnak—1110911113M. Cerny—91211672
WAug 28 · 08:55D. Bochnak—128511113M. Cerny—101111682
WAug 27 · 10:35D. Bochnak—11811113M. Cerny—611681
LAug 27 · 07:25D. Bochnak—511991M. Cerny—11911113
WAug 26 · 10:20D. Bochnak—1111113M. Cerny—7990
WAug 23 · 13:53D. Bochnak—914116133M. Cerny—1112211112
WAug 23 · 11:50D. Bochnak—101111163M. Cerny—1298141
D. Bochnak10
WSep 6 · 09:54D. Vesecky2.508990D. Bochnak1.501111113LSep 6 · 09:25D. Bochnak1.619640M. Cerny2.201111113WSep 6 · 07:55D. Vesecky2.25411112152D. Bochnak1.57118211173LSep 6 · 07:25J. Benak2.631210113143D. Bochnak1.441012811122WSep 4 · 22:09D. Bochnak1.40991111123J. Zacharda2.75111194102WSep 4 · 20:55D. Bochnak1.361410511113J. Zacharda3.00121211572LSep 4 · 18:55D. Bochnak2.00611611O. Kadavy1.7311811113LSep 3 · 22:33D. Bochnak1.331491161J. Zacharda3.2516114113WSep 3 · 21:25J. Zacharda3.001011981D. Bochnak1.3612811113WSep 3 · 20:25D. Bochnak1.17611711113M. Kulisek4.5011911992
M. Cerny10
WSep 6 · 10:24J. Benak2.104580M. Cerny1.671111113WSep 6 · 09:25D. Bochnak1.619640M. Cerny2.201111113LSep 6 · 08:25M. Cerny1.61912971J. Benak2.20111011113LSep 6 · 06:55D. Vesecky1.8391111113M. Cerny1.83118381WSep 4 · 22:40O. Kadavy1.43912511112M. Cerny2.651110113133LSep 4 · 21:25M. Cerny4.3313790O. Kadavy1.201511113WSep 4 · 19:25J. Zacharda2.255670M. Cerny1.571111113LSep 3 · 22:03M. Kulisek1.9191111133M. Cerny1.801194111LSep 3 · 20:55M. Cerny1.61614851M. Kulisek2.20111211113LSep 3 · 19:55M. Cerny1.5011101131J. Zacharda2.5013127113
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M. Cerny
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