TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13076361
Played Sep 4Finished
David Bochnak
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611118611111––
Ondrej Kadavy
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:38 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Kadavy to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Bochnak above · Ondrej Kadavy below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 1-11
Point 65 set 4, 1-11 — our read held Ondrej Kadavy at 54.0%
65 points played in total.
H2H David Bochnak 35–66 Ondrej Kadavy David Bochnak has won 35 of their 101 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:38What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kadavy
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
35-66 in 101
Kadavy
Correct
gap of 31 in 101, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bochnak 1850 vs Kadavy 1687
Bochnak
Wrong
both rated, 163 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bochnak 60% vs Kadavy 40%
Bochnak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bochnak 50% vs Kadavy 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bochnak -1 · Kadavy +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kadavy)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kadavy form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBochnak 2.00 / Kadavy 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kadavy)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13076361
Bochnak2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 27 of 62
Down 0–1, comes back26% 7 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 15
Kadavy1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite67% won 78 of 117
Up 2–0, closes it98% 39 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it83% 54 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBochnak2wins
AwayKadavy8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKadavy leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBochnak28.6%2 of 7
AwayKadavy100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bochnak7Kadavy3n = 10Bochnak took 7 of 10
S2Bochnak3Kadavy7n = 10Kadavy took 7 of 10
S3Bochnak3Kadavy7n = 10Kadavy took 7 of 10
S4Bochnak2Kadavy6n = 8Kadavy took 6 of 8
S5Bochnak1Kadavy3n = 4Kadavy took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBochnakKadavyB − KBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.442.5−5.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBochnakKadavyBasisWin rate · lifetime368 / 596 vs 174 / 29761.7%58.6%368 / 596 vs 174 / 297Avg sets wonper match2.32.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KadavyBochnak 2.00/Kadavy 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kadavy · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kadavy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 18:08D. Bochnak—119791O. Kadavy—81111113
LSep 1 · 16:55D. Bochnak—1189101O. Kadavy—91111123
LJul 14 · 16:25D. Bochnak—115615122O. Kadavy—2111113143
LJul 12 · 14:55D. Bochnak—411031O. Kadavy—11911113
LJul 10 · 21:25D. Bochnak—11712882O. Kadavy—6111011113
LJul 8 · 17:59D. Bochnak—1151161O. Kadavy—61113113
WJul 8 · 16:25D. Bochnak—1118113O. Kadavy—71690
LJul 5 · 14:30D. Bochnak—8940O. Kadavy—1111113
WJul 5 · 10:55D. Bochnak—111126113O. Kadavy—43111182
LJul 3 · 18:40D. Bochnak—159111162O. Kadavy—171189113
D. Bochnak10
WSep 6 · 09:54D. Vesecky2.508990D. Bochnak1.501111113LSep 6 · 09:25D. Bochnak1.619640M. Cerny2.201111113WSep 6 · 07:55D. Vesecky2.25411112152D. Bochnak1.57118211173LSep 6 · 07:25J. Benak2.631210113143D. Bochnak1.441012811122WSep 4 · 22:09D. Bochnak1.40991111123J. Zacharda2.75111194102WSep 4 · 20:55D. Bochnak1.361410511113J. Zacharda3.00121211572LSep 4 · 19:55D. Bochnak1.6711991282M. Cerny2.105111110103LSep 3 · 22:33D. Bochnak1.331491161J. Zacharda3.2516114113WSep 3 · 21:25J. Zacharda3.001011981D. Bochnak1.3612811113WSep 3 · 20:25D. Bochnak1.17611711113M. Kulisek4.5011911992
O. Kadavy10
LSep 4 · 22:40O. Kadavy1.43912511112M. Cerny2.651110113133WSep 4 · 21:25M. Cerny4.3313790O. Kadavy1.201511113WSep 4 · 20:25O. Kadavy1.53116711113J. Zacharda2.3811111292WSep 1 · 18:08O. Kadavy1.8381111113D. Bochnak1.83119791WSep 1 · 16:55O. Kadavy1.7391111123D. Bochnak2.001189101LSep 1 · 15:55O. Kadavy2.25911101162D. Jicha1.57117127113LSep 1 · 14:55O. Kadavy1.9181110121F. Strejc1.8011512143LAug 21 · 22:58T. Vorisek1.57121186113O. Kadavy2.25108111152WAug 21 · 20:55O. Kadavy2.50851111113D. Jicha1.5011115272LAug 21 · 19:55O. Kadavy2.208516101T. Vorisek1.61111114123
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