TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13057919
Played Sep 1Finished
Ondrej Kadavy
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
81111510121214––
Filip Strejc
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:23 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeFilip Strejc to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Kadavy above · Filip Strejc below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 12-14
Point 83 set 4, 12-14 — our read held Filip Strejc at 57.7%
83 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Kadavy 6–14 Filip Strejc Ondrej Kadavy has won 6 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:23What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Strejc
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-14 in 20
Strejc
Correct
gap of 8 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kadavy 1647 vs Strejc 1719
Strejc
Correct
both rated, 72 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kadavy 40% vs Strejc 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kadavy 50% vs Strejc 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kadavy -1 · Strejc +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Strejc) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strejc form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKadavy 1.91 / Strejc 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Strejc)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13057919
Kadavy1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 32 of 67
Down 0–1, comes back28% 10 of 36
Down 0–2, comes back17% 4 of 24
Strejc1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite49% won 36 of 73
Up 2–0, closes it81% 13 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it65% 20 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKadavy4wins
AwayStrejc6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderStrejc leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKadavy42.9%3 of 7
AwayStrejc66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kadavy7Strejc3n = 10Kadavy took 7 of 10
S2Kadavy0Strejc10n = 10Strejc took 10 of 10
S3Kadavy5Strejc5n = 10split evenly
S4Kadavy4Strejc5n = 9Strejc took 5 of 9
S5Kadavy3Strejc2n = 5Kadavy took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKadavyStrejcK − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.640.8−0.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKadavyStrejcBasisWin rate · lifetime174 / 297 vs 220 / 47558.6%46.3%174 / 297 vs 220 / 475Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StrejcKadavy 1.91/Strejc 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Strejc · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Strejc won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 21 · 18:55O. Kadavy—115127113F. Strejc—811101162
LAug 19 · 18:30O. Kadavy—1081141F. Strejc—12111113
LAug 19 · 16:55O. Kadavy—117651F. Strejc—51111113
LAug 16 · 08:55O. Kadavy—11861142F. Strejc—911115113
LAug 12 · 16:55O. Kadavy—119111162F. Strejc—811138113
WAug 8 · 22:23O. Kadavy—11811113F. Strejc—911471
WAug 8 · 19:25O. Kadavy—591113113F. Strejc—111131142
LMay 24 · 09:19O. Kadavy—1110881F. Strejc—61211113
LMay 24 · 06:50O. Kadavy—109130F. Strejc—1211153
WMay 15 · 16:55O. Kadavy—1111117113F. Strejc—41361182
O. Kadavy10
LSep 4 · 22:40O. Kadavy1.43912511112M. Cerny2.651110113133WSep 4 · 21:25M. Cerny4.3313790O. Kadavy1.201511113WSep 4 · 20:25O. Kadavy1.53116711113J. Zacharda2.3811111292WSep 4 · 18:55D. Bochnak2.00611611O. Kadavy1.7311811113WSep 1 · 18:08O. Kadavy1.8381111113D. Bochnak1.83119791WSep 1 · 16:55O. Kadavy1.7391111123D. Bochnak2.001189101LSep 1 · 15:55O. Kadavy2.25911101162D. Jicha1.57117127113LAug 21 · 22:58T. Vorisek1.57121186113O. Kadavy2.25108111152WAug 21 · 20:55O. Kadavy2.50851111113D. Jicha1.5011115272LAug 21 · 19:55O. Kadavy2.208516101T. Vorisek1.61111114123
F. Strejc10
LSep 6 · 17:25D. Jicha1.6511118113F. Strejc2.10991181LSep 6 · 16:50F. Strejc2.25119771T. Vorisek1.5781111113LSep 6 · 15:20D. Jicha1.73711311183F. Strejc2.00118111162WSep 6 · 14:50M. Stusek1.80101080F. Strejc1.911212113LSep 4 · 21:20M. Stusek1.831411113F. Strejc1.8712980LSep 4 · 20:50J. Zlamal1.4461111113F. Strejc2.63116751LSep 4 · 19:50F. Strejc1.8371080M. Stusek1.831112113LSep 4 · 18:20T. Vorisek1.61681113113F. Strejc2.20111111182WSep 2 · 17:54T. Flicek1.91912641F. Strejc1.80111011113LSep 2 · 16:55F. Strejc1.8391121182T. Flicek1.83119116113
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