TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13076885
Played Sep 4Finished
Filip Strejc
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
7111012811––––
Martin Stusek
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:28 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeFilip Strejc to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingFilip Strejc above · Martin Stusek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 59 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Filip Strejc at 54.0%
59 points played in total.
H2H Filip Strejc 66–65 Martin Stusek Martin Stusek has won 65 of their 131 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:28What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Stusek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
66-65 in 131
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strejc 1688 vs Stusek 1757
Stusek
Correct
both rated, 69 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strejc 20% vs Stusek 40%
Stusek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strejc 40% vs Stusek 60%
Stusek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Strejc -1 · Stusek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stusek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stusek form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrejc 1.83 / Stusek 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Stusek)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13076885
Strejc1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Stusek1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStrejc6wins
AwayStusek4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderStrejc leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrejc100%3 of 3
AwayStusek57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strejc3Stusek7n = 10Stusek took 7 of 10
S2Strejc8Stusek2n = 10Strejc took 8 of 10
S3Strejc5Stusek5n = 10split evenly
S4Strejc6Stusek2n = 8Strejc took 6 of 8
S5Strejc1Stusek2n = 3Stusek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStrejcStusekStrejc − StusekBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match40.137.9+2.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrejcStusekBasisWin rate · lifetime219 / 476 vs 318 / 67846%46.9%219 / 476 vs 318 / 678Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.736.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StusekStrejc 1.83/Stusek 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Stusek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Stusek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 19:50F. Strejc—951481M. Stusek—111112113
WAug 26 · 22:28F. Strejc—91211113M. Stusek—1110781
WAug 26 · 21:25F. Strejc—121111113M. Stusek—1041381
WAug 23 · 08:55F. Strejc—1111113M. Stusek—9740
WAug 9 · 18:03F. Strejc—1011114113M. Stusek—12461152
WAug 9 · 16:55F. Strejc—91113113M. Stusek—1191191
LAug 8 · 20:55F. Strejc—91421192M. Stusek—1112113113
LAug 7 · 18:50F. Strejc—611100M. Stusek—1113123
LJun 30 · 20:20F. Strejc—51161162M. Stusek—118117113
WJun 25 · 16:55F. Strejc—11119113M. Stusek—971161
F. Strejc10
LSep 6 · 17:25D. Jicha1.6511118113F. Strejc2.10991181LSep 6 · 16:50F. Strejc2.25119771T. Vorisek1.5781111113LSep 6 · 15:20D. Jicha1.73711311183F. Strejc2.00118111162WSep 6 · 14:50M. Stusek1.80101080F. Strejc1.911212113LSep 4 · 21:20M. Stusek1.831411113F. Strejc1.8712980LSep 4 · 20:50J. Zlamal1.4461111113F. Strejc2.63116751LSep 4 · 18:20T. Vorisek1.61681113113F. Strejc2.20111111182WSep 2 · 17:54T. Flicek1.91912641F. Strejc1.80111011113LSep 2 · 16:55F. Strejc1.8391121182T. Flicek1.83119116113LSep 2 · 15:55F. Strejc2.207111051D. Jicha1.6111812113
M. Stusek10
WSep 6 · 17:55M. Stusek2.051111113T. Vorisek1.707890WSep 6 · 16:20D. Jicha1.611177111M. Stusek2.2061111133WSep 6 · 15:50T. Vorisek1.839860M. Stusek1.831111113LSep 6 · 14:50M. Stusek1.80101080F. Strejc1.911212113WSep 4 · 21:20M. Stusek1.831411113F. Strejc1.8712980LSep 4 · 20:20T. Vorisek1.831112113M. Stusek1.8371070WSep 4 · 18:50M. Stusek2.63111175113J. Zlamal1.4496111162LSep 1 · 21:58M. Stusek2.2099110T. Vorisek1.611111133WSep 1 · 20:55M. Stusek2.1011811113T. Vorisek1.67811991LSep 1 · 19:55M. Stusek2.503850J. Zlamal1.501111113
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