TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13079415
Played Sep 4Finished
Martin Stusek
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1412119118––––
Filip Strejc
Away
1.87
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:18 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeMartin Stusek to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Stusek above · Filip Strejc below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 65 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Martin Stusek at 59.3%
65 points played in total.
H2H Martin Stusek 68–66 Filip Strejc Filip Strejc has won 66 of their 134 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:18What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (51%)
Stusek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
68-66 in 134
Stusek
Correct
gap of 2 in 134, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stusek 1772 vs Strejc 1653
Stusek
Correct
both rated, 119 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stusek 60% vs Strejc 20%
Stusek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stusek 60% vs Strejc 20%
Stusek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stusek -1 · Strejc -3
Strejc
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stusek) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strejc form (20%) is below what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStusek 1.83 / Strejc 1.87
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Stusek)+3.5pp
TT Cup · #13079415
Stusek1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite52% won 70 of 136
Up 2–0, closes it91% 42 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it75% 56 of 75
Strejc1.87
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 54 of 133
Down 0–1, comes back24% 18 of 75
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStusek5wins
AwayStrejc5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStusek57.1%4 of 7
AwayStrejc66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stusek7Strejc3n = 10Stusek took 7 of 10
S2Stusek3Strejc7n = 10Strejc took 7 of 10
S3Stusek5Strejc5n = 10split evenly
S4Stusek3Strejc4n = 7Strejc took 4 of 7
S5Stusek2Strejc1n = 3Stusek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStusekStrejcStusek − StrejcBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.239.1−0.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStusekStrejcBasisWin rate · lifetime319 / 680 vs 219 / 47846.9%45.8%319 / 680 vs 219 / 478Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StusekStusek 1.83/Strejc 1.87
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Stusek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Stusek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 19:50M. Stusek—1112113F. Strejc—71080
WAug 30 · 17:25M. Stusek—1211113F. Strejc—10870
WAug 28 · 21:40M. Stusek—1161113113F. Strejc—131151182
WAug 28 · 19:50M. Stusek—111112113F. Strejc—951481
LAug 26 · 22:28M. Stusek—1110781F. Strejc—91211113
LAug 26 · 21:25M. Stusek—1041381F. Strejc—121111113
LAug 23 · 08:55M. Stusek—9740F. Strejc—1111113
LAug 9 · 18:03M. Stusek—12461152F. Strejc—1011114113
LAug 9 · 16:55M. Stusek—1191191F. Strejc—91113113
WAug 8 · 20:55M. Stusek—1112113113F. Strejc—91421192
M. Stusek10
WSep 6 · 17:55M. Stusek2.051111113T. Vorisek1.707890WSep 6 · 16:20D. Jicha1.611177111M. Stusek2.2061111133WSep 6 · 15:50T. Vorisek1.839860M. Stusek1.831111113LSep 6 · 14:50M. Stusek1.80101080F. Strejc1.911212113LSep 4 · 20:20T. Vorisek1.831112113M. Stusek1.8371070WSep 4 · 19:50F. Strejc1.8371080M. Stusek1.831112113WSep 4 · 18:50M. Stusek2.63111175113J. Zlamal1.4496111162LSep 1 · 21:58M. Stusek2.2099110T. Vorisek1.611111133WSep 1 · 20:55M. Stusek2.1011811113T. Vorisek1.67811991LSep 1 · 19:55M. Stusek2.503850J. Zlamal1.501111113
F. Strejc10
LSep 6 · 17:25D. Jicha1.6511118113F. Strejc2.10991181LSep 6 · 16:50F. Strejc2.25119771T. Vorisek1.5781111113LSep 6 · 15:20D. Jicha1.73711311183F. Strejc2.00118111162WSep 6 · 14:50M. Stusek1.80101080F. Strejc1.911212113LSep 4 · 20:50J. Zlamal1.4461111113F. Strejc2.63116751LSep 4 · 19:50F. Strejc1.8371080M. Stusek1.831112113LSep 4 · 18:20T. Vorisek1.61681113113F. Strejc2.20111111182WSep 2 · 17:54T. Flicek1.91912641F. Strejc1.80111011113LSep 2 · 16:55F. Strejc1.8391121182T. Flicek1.83119116113LSep 2 · 15:55F. Strejc2.207111051D. Jicha1.6111812113
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