TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13086610
Played Sep 6Finished
Martin Stusek
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
10121012811––––
Filip Strejc
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:38 and never touched — 59.4% is still 59.4%
Graded at full timeMartin Stusek to win
59.4%
59.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMartin Stusek above · Filip Strejc below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 63 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Martin Stusek at 59.4%
63 points played in total.
H2H Martin Stusek 69–67 Filip Strejc Filip Strejc has won 67 of their 136 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:38What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Stusek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
69-67 in 136
Stusek
Wrong
gap of 2 in 136, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stusek 1829 vs Strejc 1665
Stusek
Wrong
both rated, 164 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stusek 60% vs Strejc 20%
Stusek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stusek 60% vs Strejc 20%
Stusek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stusek +1 · Strejc -4
Strejc
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stusek) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strejc form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStusek 1.80 / Strejc 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Stusek)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13086610
Stusek1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite52% won 71 of 137
Up 2–0, closes it92% 43 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it75% 57 of 76
Strejc1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 54 of 136
Down 0–1, comes back24% 18 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStusek5wins
AwayStrejc5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStusek66.7%4 of 6
AwayStrejc75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stusek6Strejc4n = 10Stusek took 6 of 10
S2Stusek4Strejc6n = 10Strejc took 6 of 10
S3Stusek5Strejc5n = 10split evenly
S4Stusek3Strejc2n = 5Stusek took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricStusekStrejcStusek − StrejcBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.836.6−0.8per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStusekStrejcBasisWin rate · lifetime320 / 681 vs 216 / 47647%45.4%320 / 681 vs 216 / 476Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StusekStusek 1.80/Strejc 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Stusek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Strejc won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 14:50M. Stusek—101080F. Strejc—1212113
WSep 4 · 21:20M. Stusek—1411113F. Strejc—12980
WSep 4 · 19:50M. Stusek—1112113F. Strejc—71080
WAug 30 · 17:25M. Stusek—1211113F. Strejc—10870
WAug 28 · 21:40M. Stusek—1161113113F. Strejc—131151182
WAug 28 · 19:50M. Stusek—111112113F. Strejc—951481
LAug 26 · 22:28M. Stusek—1110781F. Strejc—91211113
LAug 26 · 21:25M. Stusek—1041381F. Strejc—121111113
LAug 23 · 08:55M. Stusek—9740F. Strejc—1111113
LAug 9 · 18:03M. Stusek—12461152F. Strejc—1011114113
M. Stusek10
WSep 6 · 17:55M. Stusek2.051111113T. Vorisek1.707890WSep 6 · 16:20D. Jicha1.611177111M. Stusek2.2061111133WSep 6 · 15:50T. Vorisek1.839860M. Stusek1.831111113WSep 4 · 21:20M. Stusek1.831411113F. Strejc1.8712980LSep 4 · 20:20T. Vorisek1.831112113M. Stusek1.8371070WSep 4 · 19:50F. Strejc1.8371080M. Stusek1.831112113WSep 4 · 18:50M. Stusek2.63111175113J. Zlamal1.4496111162LSep 1 · 21:58M. Stusek2.2099110T. Vorisek1.611111133WSep 1 · 20:55M. Stusek2.1011811113T. Vorisek1.67811991LSep 1 · 19:55M. Stusek2.503850J. Zlamal1.501111113
F. Strejc10
LSep 6 · 17:25D. Jicha1.6511118113F. Strejc2.10991181LSep 6 · 16:50F. Strejc2.25119771T. Vorisek1.5781111113LSep 6 · 15:20D. Jicha1.73711311183F. Strejc2.00118111162LSep 4 · 21:20M. Stusek1.831411113F. Strejc1.8712980LSep 4 · 20:50J. Zlamal1.4461111113F. Strejc2.63116751LSep 4 · 19:50F. Strejc1.8371080M. Stusek1.831112113LSep 4 · 18:20T. Vorisek1.61681113113F. Strejc2.20111111182WSep 2 · 17:54T. Flicek1.91912641F. Strejc1.80111011113LSep 2 · 16:55F. Strejc1.8391121182T. Flicek1.83119116113LSep 2 · 15:55F. Strejc2.207111051D. Jicha1.6111812113
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