TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13079609
Played Sep 4Finished
Ondrej Kadavy
Home
1.43
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
91112105111131113
Martin Cerny
Away
2.65
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:08 and never touched — 68.9% is still 68.9%
Graded at full timeOndrej Kadavy to win
68.9%
68.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOndrej Kadavy above · Martin Cerny below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 96 set 5, 11-13 — our read held Ondrej Kadavy at 68.9%
96 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Kadavy 26–8 Martin Cerny Martin Cerny has won 8 of their 34 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:08What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.43 (65%)
Kadavy
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-8 in 34
Kadavy
Wrong
gap of 18 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kadavy 1734 vs Cerny 1816
Cerny
Correct
both rated, 82 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kadavy 100% vs Cerny 40%
Kadavy
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kadavy 60% vs Cerny 40%
Kadavy
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kadavy +5 · Cerny -1
Kadavy
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Kadavy) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kadavy form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (70%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKadavy 1.43 / Cerny 2.65
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Kadavy)-1.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13079609
Kadavy1.43
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite67% won 78 of 117
Up 2–0, closes it98% 39 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it83% 54 of 65
Cerny2.65
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 46 of 120
Down 0–1, comes back13% 9 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKadavy9wins
AwayCerny1wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKadavy leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKadavy100%9 of 9
AwayCernyn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kadavy9Cerny1n = 10Kadavy took 9 of 10
S2Kadavy9Cerny1n = 10Kadavy took 9 of 10
S3Kadavy9Cerny1n = 10Kadavy took 9 of 10
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home880%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKadavyCernyK − CBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match35.424.3+11.1per matchSweeps80+83–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKadavyCernyBasisWin rate · lifetime175 / 296 vs 476 / 83259.1%57.2%175 / 296 vs 476 / 832Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KadavyKadavy 1.43/Cerny 2.65
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.8%
Kadavy · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Cerny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 21:25O. Kadavy—1511113M. Cerny—13790
WJul 12 · 16:25O. Kadavy—1111113M. Cerny—6690
WJul 10 · 22:45O. Kadavy—1111113M. Cerny—6960
WJul 10 · 20:25O. Kadavy—1111123M. Cerny—54100
WJul 8 · 14:55O. Kadavy—1111113M. Cerny—5450
WJul 7 · 06:55O. Kadavy—1112113M. Cerny—81050
WJul 5 · 13:25O. Kadavy—111110113M. Cerny—571251
WJul 3 · 15:55O. Kadavy—1111113M. Cerny—6810
WJul 1 · 17:25O. Kadavy—1111113M. Cerny—6790
LJun 30 · 17:25O. Kadavy—29111182M. Cerny—111198113
O. Kadavy10
WSep 4 · 21:25M. Cerny4.3313790O. Kadavy1.201511113WSep 4 · 20:25O. Kadavy1.53116711113J. Zacharda2.3811111292WSep 4 · 18:55D. Bochnak2.00611611O. Kadavy1.7311811113WSep 1 · 18:08O. Kadavy1.8381111113D. Bochnak1.83119791WSep 1 · 16:55O. Kadavy1.7391111123D. Bochnak2.001189101LSep 1 · 15:55O. Kadavy2.25911101162D. Jicha1.57117127113LSep 1 · 14:55O. Kadavy1.9181110121F. Strejc1.8011512143LAug 21 · 22:58T. Vorisek1.57121186113O. Kadavy2.25108111152WAug 21 · 20:55O. Kadavy2.50851111113D. Jicha1.5011115272LAug 21 · 19:55O. Kadavy2.208516101T. Vorisek1.61111114123
M. Cerny10
WSep 6 · 10:24J. Benak2.104580M. Cerny1.671111113WSep 6 · 09:25D. Bochnak1.619640M. Cerny2.201111113LSep 6 · 08:25M. Cerny1.61912971J. Benak2.20111011113LSep 6 · 06:55D. Vesecky1.8391111113M. Cerny1.83118381LSep 4 · 21:25M. Cerny4.3313790O. Kadavy1.201511113WSep 4 · 19:55D. Bochnak1.6711991282M. Cerny2.105111110103WSep 4 · 19:25J. Zacharda2.255670M. Cerny1.571111113LSep 3 · 22:03M. Kulisek1.9191111133M. Cerny1.801194111LSep 3 · 20:55M. Cerny1.61614851M. Kulisek2.20111211113LSep 3 · 19:55M. Cerny1.5011101131J. Zacharda2.5013127113
Upcoming Matches
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M. Cerny
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