TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12469753
Played Aug 21Finished
Ondrej Kadavy
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
81151116141012––
Tomas Vorisek
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:25 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeTomas Vorisek to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Kadavy above · Tomas Vorisek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 16-14
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 87 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Tomas Vorisek at 65.7%
87 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Kadavy 18–29 Tomas Vorisek Ondrej Kadavy has won 18 of their 47 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:25What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Vorisek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-29 in 47
Vorisek
Correct
gap of 11 in 47, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kadavy 1644 vs Vorisek 1791
Vorisek
Correct
both rated, 147 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kadavy 60% vs Vorisek 40%
Kadavy
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kadavy 50% vs Vorisek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kadavy +1 · Vorisek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Vorisek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vorisek form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKadavy 2.20 / Vorisek 1.61
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Vorisek)+8.0pp
TT Cup · #12469753
Kadavy2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 31 of 65
Down 0–1, comes back27% 9 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back14% 3 of 22
Vorisek1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 87 of 152
Up 2–0, closes it95% 41 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it84% 67 of 80
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKadavy3wins
AwayVorisek7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderVorisek leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKadavy50%2 of 4
AwayVorisek83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kadavy4Vorisek6n = 10Vorisek took 6 of 10
S2Kadavy5Vorisek5n = 10split evenly
S3Kadavy3Vorisek7n = 10Vorisek took 7 of 10
S4Kadavy2Vorisek6n = 8Vorisek took 6 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away660%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKadavyVorisekK − VBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.238.3−3.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKadavyVorisekBasisWin rate · lifetime180 / 307 vs 410 / 80158.6%51.2%180 / 307 vs 410 / 801Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VorisekKadavy 2.20/Vorisek 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.7%
Vorisek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vorisek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 21 · 19:55O. Kadavy—8516101T. Vorisek—111114123
WAug 19 · 16:25O. Kadavy—1111123T. Vorisek—48100
LAug 17 · 19:55O. Kadavy—115871T. Vorisek—61111113
LAug 16 · 09:54O. Kadavy—1011971T. Vorisek—12411113
LAug 16 · 08:25O. Kadavy—7970T. Vorisek—1111113
LAug 14 · 18:55O. Kadavy—1251121T. Vorisek—101113113
LAug 12 · 16:25O. Kadavy—1051141T. Vorisek—12119113
WAug 4 · 18:08O. Kadavy—11138113T. Vorisek—7111191
LAug 4 · 16:55O. Kadavy—911951T. Vorisek—11411113
WAug 2 · 18:24O. Kadavy—911911113T. Vorisek—11411592
O. Kadavy10
LSep 4 · 22:40O. Kadavy1.43912511112M. Cerny2.651110113133WSep 4 · 21:25M. Cerny4.3313790O. Kadavy1.201511113WSep 4 · 20:25O. Kadavy1.53116711113J. Zacharda2.3811111292WSep 4 · 18:55D. Bochnak2.00611611O. Kadavy1.7311811113WSep 1 · 18:08O. Kadavy1.8381111113D. Bochnak1.83119791WSep 1 · 16:55O. Kadavy1.7391111123D. Bochnak2.001189101LSep 1 · 15:55O. Kadavy2.25911101162D. Jicha1.57117127113LSep 1 · 14:55O. Kadavy1.9181110121F. Strejc1.8011512143LAug 21 · 22:58T. Vorisek1.57121186113O. Kadavy2.25108111152WAug 21 · 20:55O. Kadavy2.50851111113D. Jicha1.5011115272
T. Vorisek10
LSep 6 · 17:55M. Stusek2.051111113T. Vorisek1.707890WSep 6 · 16:50F. Strejc2.25119771T. Vorisek1.5781111113LSep 6 · 15:50T. Vorisek1.839860M. Stusek1.831111113WSep 6 · 14:20D. Jicha1.838125111T. Vorisek1.83111011133LSep 4 · 21:50J. Zlamal1.801211113T. Vorisek1.9110920WSep 4 · 20:20T. Vorisek1.831112113M. Stusek1.8371070LSep 4 · 19:20T. Vorisek2.204950J. Zlamal1.611111113WSep 4 · 18:20T. Vorisek1.61681113113F. Strejc2.20111111182LSep 2 · 18:25T. Vorisek2.02287111092D. Jicha1.652611812113WAug 21 · 22:58T. Vorisek1.57121186113O. Kadavy2.25108111152
Upcoming Matches
O. Kadavy
Nothing scheduled
T. Vorisek1 of 1 neutral
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