TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13084821
Played Sep 6Finished
David Vesecky
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911118113118––
Martin Cerny
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:00 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeMartin Cerny to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDavid Vesecky above · Martin Cerny below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 72 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Martin Cerny at 60.5%
72 points played in total.
H2H David Vesecky 54–70 Martin Cerny David Vesecky has won 54 of their 124 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:00What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Cerny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
54-70 in 124
Cerny
Wrong
gap of 16 in 124, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vesecky 1624 vs Cerny 1830
Cerny
Wrong
both rated, 206 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vesecky 20% vs Cerny 60%
Cerny
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vesecky 30% vs Cerny 50%
Cerny
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vesecky -2 · Cerny +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cerny) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vesecky form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVesecky 1.83 / Cerny 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Cerny)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13084821
Vesecky1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Cerny1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVesecky2wins
AwayCerny8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderCerny leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVesecky33.3%1 of 3
AwayCerny85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vesecky3Cerny7n = 10Cerny took 7 of 10
S2Vesecky3Cerny7n = 10Cerny took 7 of 10
S3Vesecky2Cerny8n = 10Cerny took 8 of 10
S4Vesecky5Cerny2n = 7Vesecky took 5 of 7
S5Vesecky1Cerny3n = 4Cerny took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricVeseckyCernyV − CBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.440.4−6.0per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVeseckyCernyBasisWin rate · lifetime386 / 676 vs 479 / 83757.1%57.2%386 / 676 vs 479 / 837Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernyVesecky 1.83/Cerny 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Cerny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Vesecky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 06:55D. Vesecky—91111113M. Cerny—118381
LSep 2 · 11:25D. Vesecky—111141282M. Cerny—1391110113
LAug 31 · 14:45D. Vesecky—5750M. Cerny—1111113
LAug 31 · 10:55D. Vesecky—111461352M. Cerny—5161111113
LAug 28 · 06:55D. Vesecky—76100M. Cerny—1111123
LAug 27 · 08:25D. Vesecky—631131M. Cerny—11116113
LAug 26 · 14:05D. Vesecky—711381M. Cerny—11411113
LAug 26 · 11:20D. Vesecky—118101162M. Cerny—411126113
WAug 23 · 10:50D. Vesecky—115911123M. Cerny—911115102
LAug 19 · 06:55D. Vesecky—7680M. Cerny—1111113
D. Vesecky10
LSep 6 · 09:54D. Vesecky2.508990D. Bochnak1.501111113LSep 6 · 08:55D. Vesecky1.7391080J. Benak2.001112113LSep 6 · 07:55D. Vesecky2.25411112152D. Bochnak1.57118211173LSep 2 · 13:55D. Vesecky1.4091080J. Zacharda2.751112113LSep 2 · 13:25D. Vesecky1.409630P. Benes2.751111113WSep 2 · 11:55J. Zacharda2.758911101D. Vesecky1.4011115123LSep 2 · 11:25M. Cerny1.831391110113D. Vesecky1.83111141282LSep 1 · 10:00D. Vesecky1.85511561M. Brozek1.8511711113LSep 1 · 09:25J. Kocab1.7311711113D. Vesecky2.00211761WSep 1 · 08:25D. Vesecky1.449111011113M. Brozek2.6311212652
M. Cerny10
WSep 6 · 10:24J. Benak2.104580M. Cerny1.671111113WSep 6 · 09:25D. Bochnak1.619640M. Cerny2.201111113LSep 6 · 08:25M. Cerny1.61912971J. Benak2.20111011113WSep 4 · 22:40O. Kadavy1.43912511112M. Cerny2.651110113133LSep 4 · 21:25M. Cerny4.3313790O. Kadavy1.201511113WSep 4 · 19:55D. Bochnak1.6711991282M. Cerny2.105111110103WSep 4 · 19:25J. Zacharda2.255670M. Cerny1.571111113LSep 3 · 22:03M. Kulisek1.9191111133M. Cerny1.801194111LSep 3 · 20:55M. Cerny1.61614851M. Kulisek2.20111211113WSep 2 · 11:25M. Cerny1.831391110113D. Vesecky1.83111141282
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