TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13063832
Played Sep 2Finished
David Vesecky
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911611311––––
Pavel Benes
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:26 and never touched — 70.7% is still 70.7%
Graded at full timeDavid Vesecky to win
70.7%
70.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDavid Vesecky above · Pavel Benes below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Point 51 set 3, 3-11 — our read held David Vesecky at 70.7%
51 points played in total.
H2H David Vesecky 36–15 Pavel Benes Pavel Benes has won 15 of their 51 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:26What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Vesecky
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
36-15 in 51
Vesecky
Wrong
gap of 21 in 51, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vesecky 1686 vs Benes 1742
Benes
Correct
both rated, 57 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vesecky 40% vs Benes 80%
Benes
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vesecky 30% vs Benes 70%
Benes
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vesecky +1 · Benes +3
Benes
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Vesecky) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benes form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVesecky 1.40 / Benes 2.75
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Vesecky)+2.4pp
TT Cup · #13063832
Vesecky1.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite65% won 121 of 187
Up 2–0, closes it94% 48 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it80% 75 of 94
Benes2.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog33% won 46 of 139
Down 0–1, comes back19% 15 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVesecky8wins
AwayBenes2wins
1 of 10 to a deciderVesecky leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVesecky87.5%7 of 8
AwayBenesn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vesecky8Benes2n = 10Vesecky took 8 of 10
S2Vesecky7Benes3n = 10Vesecky took 7 of 10
S3Vesecky5Benes5n = 10split evenly
S4Vesecky4Benes2n = 6Vesecky took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVeseckyBenesV − BBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match37.331.6+5.7per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVeseckyBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime385 / 670 vs 276 / 57757.5%47.8%385 / 670 vs 276 / 577Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VeseckyVesecky 1.40/Benes 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.7%
Vesecky · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Benes won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 06:55D. Vesecky—71090P. Benes—1112113
WAug 31 · 12:55D. Vesecky—1111113P. Benes—9460
WAug 28 · 10:00D. Vesecky—111510123P. Benes—41312101
WAug 28 · 09:25D. Vesecky—11117153P. Benes—3611131
WAug 26 · 10:50D. Vesecky—1111113P. Benes—6570
WAug 20 · 12:50D. Vesecky—1211113P. Benes—10880
LAug 19 · 09:25D. Vesecky—116461P. Benes—41111113
WAug 18 · 14:35D. Vesecky—412117113P. Benes—111091192
WAug 18 · 11:55D. Vesecky—11139113P. Benes—7111111
WJul 29 · 14:35D. Vesecky—11611113P. Benes—411691
D. Vesecky10
LSep 6 · 09:54D. Vesecky2.508990D. Bochnak1.501111113LSep 6 · 08:55D. Vesecky1.7391080J. Benak2.001112113LSep 6 · 07:55D. Vesecky2.25411112152D. Bochnak1.57118211173WSep 6 · 06:55D. Vesecky1.8391111113M. Cerny1.83118381LSep 2 · 13:55D. Vesecky1.4091080J. Zacharda2.751112113WSep 2 · 11:55J. Zacharda2.758911101D. Vesecky1.4011115123LSep 2 · 11:25M. Cerny1.831391110113D. Vesecky1.83111141282LSep 1 · 10:00D. Vesecky1.85511561M. Brozek1.8511711113LSep 1 · 09:25J. Kocab1.7311711113D. Vesecky2.00211761WSep 1 · 08:25D. Vesecky1.449111011113M. Brozek2.6311212652
P. Benes10
WSep 3 · 10:40P. Benes1.5711611133J. Kocab2.259117111WSep 3 · 09:25J. Benak1.73131111492P. Benes2.00154711113WSep 3 · 08:25P. Benes1.80101111133M. Brozek1.911289111WSep 3 · 06:55J. Kocab2.10591171P. Benes1.6711116113LSep 2 · 14:25P. Benes2.6010412111M. Cerny1.45121110133WSep 2 · 12:25P. Benes2.751131011113M. Cerny1.4041112952WSep 2 · 10:55J. Zacharda1.7378120P. Benes2.001111143WSep 1 · 10:30P. Benes1.731112113J. Kocab2.0051030LSep 1 · 08:55P. Benes1.80611811102M. Brozek1.91118114123WSep 1 · 07:55P. Benes1.831112113J. Kocab1.8361080
Upcoming Matches
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