TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13055635
Played Sep 1Finished
Pavel Benes
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
6111188111141012
Michal Brozek
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:37 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePavel Benes to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPavel Benes above · Michal Brozek below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 92 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Pavel Benes at 54.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Benes 29–24 Michal Brozek Michal Brozek has won 24 of their 53 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:37What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Benes
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-24 in 53
Benes
Wrong
gap of 5 in 53, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Benes 1689 vs Brozek 1607
Benes
Wrong
both rated, 81 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benes 60% vs Brozek 20%
Benes
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benes 40% vs Brozek 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Benes +3 · Brozek -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Benes)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Brozek form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenes 1.80 / Brozek 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Benes)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13055635
Benes1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 83 of 148
Up 2–0, closes it93% 40 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it74% 57 of 77
Brozek1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 81 of 187
Down 0–1, comes back17% 15 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBenes4wins
AwayBrozek6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderBrozek leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenes100%3 of 3
AwayBrozek85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benes3Brozek7n = 10Brozek took 7 of 10
S2Benes8Brozek2n = 10Benes took 8 of 10
S3Benes3Brozek7n = 10Brozek took 7 of 10
S4Benes7Brozek2n = 9Benes took 7 of 9
S5Benes0Brozek4n = 4Brozek took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBenesBrozekBenes − BrozekBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.842.2−2.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenesBrozekBasisWin rate · lifetime273 / 574 vs 534 / 102547.6%52.1%273 / 574 vs 534 / 1025Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BenesBenes 1.80/Brozek 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Brozek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 08:55P. Benes—611811102M. Brozek—118114123
LAug 24 · 10:04P. Benes—4950M. Brozek—1111113
LAug 24 · 08:55P. Benes—811481M. Brozek—11311113
LAug 20 · 10:50P. Benes—101281182M. Brozek—1210118113
WAug 15 · 22:28P. Benes—13165113M. Brozek—11141191
WAug 15 · 21:25P. Benes—13135113M. Brozek—11111181
LAug 14 · 18:20P. Benes—41112762M. Brozek—1161011113
LAug 10 · 08:25P. Benes—101171182M. Brozek—126117113
WJul 29 · 12:55P. Benes—51111113M. Brozek—118891
WJul 24 · 12:55P. Benes—11911113M. Brozek—911981
P. Benes10
WSep 3 · 10:40P. Benes1.5711611133J. Kocab2.259117111WSep 3 · 09:25J. Benak1.73131111492P. Benes2.00154711113WSep 3 · 08:25P. Benes1.80101111133M. Brozek1.911289111WSep 3 · 06:55J. Kocab2.10591171P. Benes1.6711116113LSep 2 · 14:25P. Benes2.6010412111M. Cerny1.45121110133WSep 2 · 13:25D. Vesecky1.409630P. Benes2.751111113WSep 2 · 12:25P. Benes2.751131011113M. Cerny1.4041112952WSep 2 · 10:55J. Zacharda1.7378120P. Benes2.001111143WSep 1 · 10:30P. Benes1.731112113J. Kocab2.0051030WSep 1 · 07:55P. Benes1.831112113J. Kocab1.8361080
M. Brozek10
LSep 5 · 22:35M. Brozek1.751212881M. Kulisek1.95141011113LSep 5 · 21:25M. Kulisek2.0017101111113M. Brozek1.7319126672WSep 5 · 20:25M. Brozek1.5711711113O. Fiklik2.25311871WSep 5 · 18:55A. Rek2.50861161M. Brozek1.5011116113WSep 4 · 14:00D. Hyza1.90135101162M. Brozek1.801111127113LSep 4 · 12:50D. Hyza1.919111211113M. Brozek1.80111310962WSep 4 · 11:50M. Brozek1.611114113O. Fiklik2.2091260WSep 4 · 10:20A. Langer2.5058100M. Brozek1.501111123WSep 3 · 10:09M. Brozek2.251114611113J. Benak1.5791611972LSep 3 · 08:25P. Benes1.80101111133M. Brozek1.911289111
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