TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13063816
Played Sep 2Finished
Pavel Benes
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1143111012119115
Martin Cerny
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 9Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 9
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:28 and never touched — 70.7% is still 70.7%
Graded at full timeMartin Cerny to win
70.7%
70.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPavel Benes above · Martin Cerny below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 87 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Martin Cerny at 70.7%
87 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Benes 16–45 Martin Cerny Pavel Benes has won 16 of their 61 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:28What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Cerny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-45 in 61
Cerny
Wrong
gap of 29 in 61, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Benes 1726 vs Cerny 1907
Cerny
Wrong
both rated, 181 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benes 80% vs Cerny 100%
Cerny
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benes 60% vs Cerny 90%
Cerny
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Benes +2 · Cerny +5
Cerny
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Cerny)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cerny form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenes 2.75 / Cerny 1.40
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Cerny)+4.4pp
TT Cup · #13063816
Benes2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog33% won 46 of 139
Down 0–1, comes back19% 15 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 52
Cerny1.40
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 9
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite65% won 165 of 255
Up 2–0, closes it98% 77 of 79
Up 1–0, closes it84% 112 of 133
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBenes3wins
AwayCerny7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderCerny leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenes50%3 of 6
AwayCerny100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benes6Cerny4n = 10Benes took 6 of 10
S2Benes4Cerny6n = 10Cerny took 6 of 10
S3Benes5Cerny5n = 10split evenly
S4Benes0Cerny5n = 5Cerny took 5 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBenesCernyB − CBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match32.335.5−3.2per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenesCernyBasisWin rate · lifetime275 / 576 vs 472 / 82247.7%57.4%275 / 576 vs 472 / 822Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernyBenes 2.75/Cerny 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.7%
Cerny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Benes won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 07:55P. Benes—611971M. Cerny—11911113
LAug 26 · 12:20P. Benes—11711832M. Cerny—511811113
LAug 25 · 12:25P. Benes—81150M. Cerny—1113113
LAug 19 · 10:30P. Benes—1172071M. Cerny—131118113
LAug 19 · 07:55P. Benes—1127111M. Cerny—91111133
WAug 18 · 10:55P. Benes—1111113M. Cerny—4480
WAug 16 · 15:20P. Benes—1111113M. Cerny—5680
WMay 19 · 18:05P. Benes—1313113M. Cerny—111150
LMay 19 · 15:55P. Benes—119561M. Cerny—71111113
LMay 5 · 12:25P. Benes—3580M. Cerny—1111113
P. Benes10
WSep 3 · 10:40P. Benes1.5711611133J. Kocab2.259117111WSep 3 · 09:25J. Benak1.73131111492P. Benes2.00154711113WSep 3 · 08:25P. Benes1.80101111133M. Brozek1.911289111WSep 3 · 06:55J. Kocab2.10591171P. Benes1.6711116113LSep 2 · 14:25P. Benes2.6010412111M. Cerny1.45121110133WSep 2 · 13:25D. Vesecky1.409630P. Benes2.751111113WSep 2 · 10:55J. Zacharda1.7378120P. Benes2.001111143WSep 1 · 10:30P. Benes1.731112113J. Kocab2.0051030LSep 1 · 08:55P. Benes1.80611811102M. Brozek1.91118114123WSep 1 · 07:55P. Benes1.831112113J. Kocab1.8361080
M. Cerny10
WSep 6 · 10:24J. Benak2.104580M. Cerny1.671111113WSep 6 · 09:25D. Bochnak1.619640M. Cerny2.201111113LSep 6 · 08:25M. Cerny1.61912971J. Benak2.20111011113LSep 6 · 06:55D. Vesecky1.8391111113M. Cerny1.83118381WSep 4 · 22:40O. Kadavy1.43912511112M. Cerny2.651110113133LSep 4 · 21:25M. Cerny4.3313790O. Kadavy1.201511113WSep 4 · 19:55D. Bochnak1.6711991282M. Cerny2.105111110103WSep 4 · 19:25J. Zacharda2.255670M. Cerny1.571111113LSep 3 · 22:03M. Kulisek1.9191111133M. Cerny1.801194111WSep 2 · 14:25P. Benes2.6010412111M. Cerny1.45121110133
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