TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13067757
Played Sep 3Finished
Pavel Benes
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
10121181191311––
Michal Brozek
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:08 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePavel Benes to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Benes above · Michal Brozek below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 85 set 4, 13-11 — our read held Pavel Benes at 54.0%
85 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Benes 29–24 Michal Brozek Michal Brozek has won 24 of their 53 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:08What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Benes
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-24 in 53
Benes
Correct
gap of 5 in 53, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Benes 1762 vs Brozek 1680
Benes
Correct
both rated, 82 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benes 80% vs Brozek 100%
Brozek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benes 80% vs Brozek 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Benes +1 · Brozek +5
Brozek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Benes)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Brozek form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenes 1.80 / Brozek 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Benes)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13067757
Benes1.80
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite56% won 83 of 148
Up 2–0, closes it95% 41 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it75% 57 of 76
Brozek1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest100%takes the first set · 10 of 10
As underdog44% won 83 of 188
Down 0–1, comes back17% 15 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBenes4wins
AwayBrozek6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderBrozek leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenes100%3 of 3
AwayBrozek85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benes3Brozek7n = 10Brozek took 7 of 10
S2Benes8Brozek2n = 10Benes took 8 of 10
S3Benes3Brozek7n = 10Brozek took 7 of 10
S4Benes7Brozek2n = 9Benes took 7 of 9
S5Benes0Brozek4n = 4Brozek took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBenesBrozekBenes − BrozekBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.842.2−2.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenesBrozekBasisWin rate · lifetime275 / 575 vs 538 / 102847.8%52.3%275 / 575 vs 538 / 1028Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BenesBenes 1.80/Brozek 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Benes won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 08:55P. Benes—611811102M. Brozek—118114123
LAug 24 · 10:04P. Benes—4950M. Brozek—1111113
LAug 24 · 08:55P. Benes—811481M. Brozek—11311113
LAug 20 · 10:50P. Benes—101281182M. Brozek—1210118113
WAug 15 · 22:28P. Benes—13165113M. Brozek—11141191
WAug 15 · 21:25P. Benes—13135113M. Brozek—11111181
LAug 14 · 18:20P. Benes—41112762M. Brozek—1161011113
LAug 10 · 08:25P. Benes—101171182M. Brozek—126117113
WJul 29 · 12:55P. Benes—51111113M. Brozek—118891
WJul 24 · 12:55P. Benes—11911113M. Brozek—911981
P. Benes10
WSep 3 · 10:40P. Benes1.5711611133J. Kocab2.259117111WSep 3 · 09:25J. Benak1.73131111492P. Benes2.00154711113WSep 3 · 06:55J. Kocab2.10591171P. Benes1.6711116113LSep 2 · 14:25P. Benes2.6010412111M. Cerny1.45121110133WSep 2 · 13:25D. Vesecky1.409630P. Benes2.751111113WSep 2 · 12:25P. Benes2.751131011113M. Cerny1.4041112952WSep 2 · 10:55J. Zacharda1.7378120P. Benes2.001111143WSep 1 · 10:30P. Benes1.731112113J. Kocab2.0051030LSep 1 · 08:55P. Benes1.80611811102M. Brozek1.91118114123WSep 1 · 07:55P. Benes1.831112113J. Kocab1.8361080
M. Brozek10
LSep 5 · 22:35M. Brozek1.751212881M. Kulisek1.95141011113LSep 5 · 21:25M. Kulisek2.0017101111113M. Brozek1.7319126672WSep 5 · 20:25M. Brozek1.5711711113O. Fiklik2.25311871WSep 5 · 18:55A. Rek2.50861161M. Brozek1.5011116113WSep 4 · 14:00D. Hyza1.90135101162M. Brozek1.801111127113LSep 4 · 12:50D. Hyza1.919111211113M. Brozek1.80111310962WSep 4 · 11:50M. Brozek1.611114113O. Fiklik2.2091260WSep 4 · 10:20A. Langer2.5058100M. Brozek1.501111123WSep 3 · 10:09M. Brozek2.251114611113J. Benak1.5791611972WSep 1 · 08:55P. Benes1.80611811102M. Brozek1.91118114123
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