TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13065271
Played Sep 2Finished
Pavel Benes
Home
2.60
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
101241112101113––
Martin Cerny
Away
1.45
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:48 and never touched — 60.4% is still 60.4%
Graded at full timeMartin Cerny to win
60.4%
60.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Benes above · Martin Cerny below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 83 set 4, 11-13 — our read held Martin Cerny at 60.4%
83 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Benes 17–46 Martin Cerny Pavel Benes has won 17 of their 63 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:48What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.45 (64%)
Cerny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-46 in 63
Cerny
Correct
gap of 29 in 63, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Benes 1754 vs Cerny 1896
Cerny
Correct
both rated, 142 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benes 80% vs Cerny 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benes 70% vs Cerny 90%
Cerny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Benes +4 · Cerny +1
Benes
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Cerny) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cerny form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenes 2.60 / Cerny 1.45
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Cerny)+4.4pp
TT Cup · #13065271
Benes2.60
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog33% won 46 of 139
Down 0–1, comes back19% 15 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 52
Cerny1.45
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite65% won 165 of 255
Up 2–0, closes it98% 77 of 79
Up 1–0, closes it84% 112 of 133
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBenes4wins
AwayCerny6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderCerny leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenes66.7%4 of 6
AwayCerny100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benes6Cerny4n = 10Benes took 6 of 10
S2Benes5Cerny5n = 10split evenly
S3Benes5Cerny5n = 10split evenly
S4Benes2Cerny4n = 6Cerny took 4 of 6
S5Benes1Cerny2n = 3Cerny took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBenesCernyB − CBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.036.6−0.6per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenesCernyBasisWin rate · lifetime277 / 578 vs 473 / 82447.9%57.4%277 / 578 vs 473 / 824Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernyBenes 2.60/Cerny 1.45
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.6%
Cerny · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Cerny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 12:25P. Benes—1131011113M. Cerny—41112952
LAug 31 · 12:25P. Benes—91121152M. Cerny—115115113
LAug 28 · 07:55P. Benes—611971M. Cerny—11911113
LAug 26 · 12:20P. Benes—11711832M. Cerny—511811113
LAug 25 · 12:25P. Benes—81150M. Cerny—1113113
LAug 19 · 10:30P. Benes—1172071M. Cerny—131118113
LAug 19 · 07:55P. Benes—1127111M. Cerny—91111133
WAug 18 · 10:55P. Benes—1111113M. Cerny—4480
WAug 16 · 15:20P. Benes—1111113M. Cerny—5680
WMay 19 · 18:05P. Benes—1313113M. Cerny—111150
P. Benes10
WSep 3 · 10:40P. Benes1.5711611133J. Kocab2.259117111WSep 3 · 09:25J. Benak1.73131111492P. Benes2.00154711113WSep 3 · 08:25P. Benes1.80101111133M. Brozek1.911289111WSep 3 · 06:55J. Kocab2.10591171P. Benes1.6711116113WSep 2 · 13:25D. Vesecky1.409630P. Benes2.751111113WSep 2 · 12:25P. Benes2.751131011113M. Cerny1.4041112952WSep 2 · 10:55J. Zacharda1.7378120P. Benes2.001111143WSep 1 · 10:30P. Benes1.731112113J. Kocab2.0051030LSep 1 · 08:55P. Benes1.80611811102M. Brozek1.91118114123WSep 1 · 07:55P. Benes1.831112113J. Kocab1.8361080
M. Cerny10
WSep 6 · 10:24J. Benak2.104580M. Cerny1.671111113WSep 6 · 09:25D. Bochnak1.619640M. Cerny2.201111113LSep 6 · 08:25M. Cerny1.61912971J. Benak2.20111011113LSep 6 · 06:55D. Vesecky1.8391111113M. Cerny1.83118381WSep 4 · 22:40O. Kadavy1.43912511112M. Cerny2.651110113133LSep 4 · 21:25M. Cerny4.3313790O. Kadavy1.201511113WSep 4 · 19:55D. Bochnak1.6711991282M. Cerny2.105111110103WSep 4 · 19:25J. Zacharda2.255670M. Cerny1.571111113LSep 3 · 22:03M. Kulisek1.9191111133M. Cerny1.801194111LSep 2 · 12:25P. Benes2.751131011113M. Cerny1.4041112952
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