TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13070817
Played Sep 3Finished
Pavel Benes
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1196111171311––
Jan Kocab
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:28 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timePavel Benes to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Benes above · Jan Kocab below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 79 set 4, 13-11 — our read held Pavel Benes at 60.5%
79 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Benes 19–21 Jan Kocab Pavel Benes has won 19 of their 40 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:28What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Benes
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-21 in 40
Kocab
Wrong
gap of 2 in 40, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Benes 1773 vs Kocab 1532
Benes
Correct
both rated, 241 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benes 80% vs Kocab 40%
Benes
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benes 80% vs Kocab 40%
Benes
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Benes +3 · Kocab +1
Benes
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Benes)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benes form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenes 1.57 / Kocab 2.25
Signal prob.61% / 40%
Edge (Benes)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13070817
Benes1.57
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 83 of 148
Up 2–0, closes it95% 41 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it75% 57 of 76
Kocab2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 25 of 71
Down 0–1, comes back19% 8 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBenes9wins
AwayKocab1wins
Benes leads 9–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenes100%8 of 8
AwayKocabn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benes8Kocab2n = 10Benes took 8 of 10
S2Benes8Kocab2n = 10Benes took 8 of 10
S3Benes7Kocab3n = 10Benes took 7 of 10
S4Benes4Kocab0n = 4Benes took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBenesKocabB − KBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match34.927.6+7.3per matchSweeps51+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenesKocabBasisWin rate · lifetime274 / 574 vs 125 / 25947.7%48.3%274 / 574 vs 125 / 259Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.336.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BenesBenes 1.57/Kocab 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.5%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Benes won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 06:55P. Benes—11116113J. Kocab—591171
WSep 1 · 10:30P. Benes—1112113J. Kocab—51030
WSep 1 · 07:55P. Benes—1112113J. Kocab—61080
WAug 31 · 14:15P. Benes—11117113J. Kocab—881171
WAug 31 · 11:25P. Benes—1111113J. Kocab—8880
WAug 25 · 13:53P. Benes—11711113J. Kocab—811491
WAug 25 · 12:55P. Benes—1111113J. Kocab—9550
LAug 24 · 07:25P. Benes—71360J. Kocab—1115113
WAug 21 · 09:25P. Benes—41111113J. Kocab—118971
WAug 16 · 14:50P. Benes—1111113J. Kocab—7590
P. Benes10
WSep 3 · 09:25J. Benak1.73131111492P. Benes2.00154711113WSep 3 · 08:25P. Benes1.80101111133M. Brozek1.911289111WSep 3 · 06:55J. Kocab2.10591171P. Benes1.6711116113LSep 2 · 14:25P. Benes2.6010412111M. Cerny1.45121110133WSep 2 · 13:25D. Vesecky1.409630P. Benes2.751111113WSep 2 · 12:25P. Benes2.751131011113M. Cerny1.4041112952WSep 2 · 10:55J. Zacharda1.7378120P. Benes2.001111143WSep 1 · 10:30P. Benes1.731112113J. Kocab2.0051030LSep 1 · 08:55P. Benes1.80611811102M. Brozek1.91118114123WSep 1 · 07:55P. Benes1.831112113J. Kocab1.8361080
J. Kocab10
WSep 3 · 08:55J. Kocab1.73111011113M. Brozek2.00512341LSep 3 · 07:55J. Kocab1.83811911102J. Benak1.83113115123LSep 3 · 06:55J. Kocab2.10591171P. Benes1.6711116113LSep 1 · 10:30P. Benes1.731112113J. Kocab2.0051030WSep 1 · 09:25J. Kocab1.7311711113D. Vesecky2.00211761LSep 1 · 07:55P. Benes1.831112113J. Kocab1.8361080WSep 1 · 07:25M. Brozek2.3812117462J. Kocab1.531091111113LAug 31 · 14:15P. Benes1.7311117113J. Kocab2.00881171LAug 31 · 13:25J. Kocab3.401111111092M. Cerny1.30513812113WAug 31 · 11:55D. Vesecky2.10714461J. Kocab1.67111211113
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