TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13055067
Played Sep 1Finished
Michal Brozek
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1210119711411611
Jan Kocab
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:57 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Brozek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMichal Brozek above · Jan Kocab below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 92 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Michal Brozek at 54.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Michal Brozek 9–15 Jan Kocab Michal Brozek has won 9 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:57What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Kocab
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-15 in 24
Kocab
Correct
gap of 6 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Brozek 1675 vs Kocab 1524
Brozek
Wrong
both rated, 151 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brozek 40% vs Kocab 20%
Brozek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brozek 40% vs Kocab 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Brozek -2 · Kocab -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Kocab) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kocab form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrozek 2.38 / Kocab 1.53
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Kocab)-1.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13055067
Brozek2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 83 of 188
Down 0–1, comes back17% 15 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 52
Kocab1.53
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 51 of 81
Up 2–0, closes it93% 26 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it85% 41 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBrozek3wins
AwayKocab7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKocab leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBrozek75%3 of 4
AwayKocab100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Brozek4Kocab6n = 10Kocab took 6 of 10
S2Brozek5Kocab5n = 10split evenly
S3Brozek3Kocab7n = 10Kocab took 7 of 10
S4Brozek1Kocab6n = 7Kocab took 6 of 7
S5Brozek2Kocab1n = 3Brozek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBrozekKocabB − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.439.7−7.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrozekKocabBasisWin rate · lifetime537 / 1026 vs 124 / 25652.3%48.4%537 / 1026 vs 124 / 256Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.736.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KocabBrozek 2.38/Kocab 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.4%
Kocab · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kocab won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 07:25M. Brozek—12117462J. Kocab—1091111113
WAug 28 · 14:25M. Brozek—117116113J. Kocab—11141182
LAug 28 · 13:25M. Brozek—86110J. Kocab—1111133
LAug 24 · 07:55M. Brozek—10440J. Kocab—1211113
WAug 14 · 20:50M. Brozek—147911113J. Kocab—121111892
LAug 10 · 12:55M. Brozek—411541J. Kocab—11411113
LAug 8 · 09:25M. Brozek—511541J. Kocab—11911113
LAug 3 · 13:25M. Brozek—413951J. Kocab—111111113
WJul 9 · 06:55M. Brozek—1211133J. Kocab—106110
LJul 5 · 07:55M. Brozek—831151J. Kocab—11117113
M. Brozek10
LSep 5 · 22:35M. Brozek1.751212881M. Kulisek1.95141011113LSep 5 · 21:25M. Kulisek2.0017101111113M. Brozek1.7319126672WSep 5 · 20:25M. Brozek1.5711711113O. Fiklik2.25311871WSep 5 · 18:55A. Rek2.50861161M. Brozek1.5011116113WSep 4 · 14:00D. Hyza1.90135101162M. Brozek1.801111127113LSep 4 · 12:50D. Hyza1.919111211113M. Brozek1.80111310962WSep 4 · 11:50M. Brozek1.611114113O. Fiklik2.2091260WSep 4 · 10:20A. Langer2.5058100M. Brozek1.501111123WSep 3 · 10:09M. Brozek2.251114611113J. Benak1.5791611972LSep 3 · 08:55J. Kocab1.73111011113M. Brozek2.00512341
J. Kocab10
LSep 3 · 10:40P. Benes1.5711611133J. Kocab2.259117111WSep 3 · 08:55J. Kocab1.73111011113M. Brozek2.00512341LSep 3 · 07:55J. Kocab1.83811911102J. Benak1.83113115123LSep 3 · 06:55J. Kocab2.10591171P. Benes1.6711116113LSep 1 · 10:30P. Benes1.731112113J. Kocab2.0051030WSep 1 · 09:25J. Kocab1.7311711113D. Vesecky2.00211761LSep 1 · 07:55P. Benes1.831112113J. Kocab1.8361080LAug 31 · 14:15P. Benes1.7311117113J. Kocab2.00881171LAug 31 · 13:25J. Kocab3.401111111092M. Cerny1.30513812113WAug 31 · 11:55D. Vesecky2.10714461J. Kocab1.67111211113
Upcoming Matches
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J. Kocab
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