TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13050092
Played Aug 31Finished
Jan Kocab
Home
3.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11511131181012911
Martin Cerny
Away
1.30
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:13 and never touched — 78.6% is still 78.6%
Graded at full timeMartin Cerny to win
78.6%
78.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Kocab above · Martin Cerny below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 101 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Martin Cerny at 78.6%
101 points played in total.
H2H Jan Kocab 5–20 Martin Cerny Jan Kocab has won 5 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:13What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Cerny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-20 in 25
Cerny
Correct
gap of 15 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kocab 1592 vs Cerny 1889
Cerny
Correct
both rated, 297 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kocab 20% vs Cerny 100%
Cerny
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kocab 50% vs Cerny 80%
Cerny
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kocab +1 · Cerny +5
Cerny
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Cerny)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cerny form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKocab 3.40 / Cerny 1.30
Signal prob.21% / 79%
Edge (Cerny)+6.3pp
TT Cup · #13050092
Kocab3.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 25 of 67
Down 0–1, comes back20% 8 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 24
Cerny1.30
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite64% won 163 of 253
Up 2–0, closes it98% 77 of 79
Up 1–0, closes it84% 111 of 132
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKocab2wins
AwayCerny8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderCerny leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKocab33.3%1 of 3
AwayCerny85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kocab3Cerny7n = 10Cerny took 7 of 10
S2Kocab3Cerny7n = 10Cerny took 7 of 10
S3Kocab3Cerny7n = 10Cerny took 7 of 10
S4Kocab2Cerny4n = 6Cerny took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKocabCernyK − CBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match29.637.6−8.0per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKocabCernyBasisWin rate · lifetime124 / 256 vs 469 / 81948.4%57.3%124 / 256 vs 469 / 819Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.536.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernyKocab 3.40/Cerny 1.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
78.6%
Cerny · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Cerny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 07:55J. Kocab—5870M. Cerny—1111113
LAug 27 · 08:55J. Kocab—1139111M. Cerny—91111133
LAug 25 · 10:55J. Kocab—7670M. Cerny—1111113
LAug 23 · 12:20J. Kocab—311631M. Cerny—11711113
WAug 20 · 22:00J. Kocab—811511113M. Cerny—11911642
LAug 20 · 19:55J. Kocab—4360M. Cerny—1111113
LAug 16 · 17:28J. Kocab—94111162M. Cerny—111186113
LAug 16 · 16:20J. Kocab—1187111M. Cerny—71111133
WAug 10 · 11:55J. Kocab—1211113M. Cerny—10930
LAug 7 · 14:05J. Kocab—671141M. Cerny—11118113
J. Kocab10
LSep 3 · 10:40P. Benes1.5711611133J. Kocab2.259117111WSep 3 · 08:55J. Kocab1.73111011113M. Brozek2.00512341LSep 3 · 07:55J. Kocab1.83811911102J. Benak1.83113115123LSep 3 · 06:55J. Kocab2.10591171P. Benes1.6711116113LSep 1 · 10:30P. Benes1.731112113J. Kocab2.0051030WSep 1 · 09:25J. Kocab1.7311711113D. Vesecky2.00211761LSep 1 · 07:55P. Benes1.831112113J. Kocab1.8361080WSep 1 · 07:25M. Brozek2.3812117462J. Kocab1.531091111113LAug 31 · 14:15P. Benes1.7311117113J. Kocab2.00881171WAug 31 · 11:55D. Vesecky2.10714461J. Kocab1.67111211113
M. Cerny10
WSep 6 · 10:24J. Benak2.104580M. Cerny1.671111113WSep 6 · 09:25D. Bochnak1.619640M. Cerny2.201111113LSep 6 · 08:25M. Cerny1.61912971J. Benak2.20111011113LSep 6 · 06:55D. Vesecky1.8391111113M. Cerny1.83118381WSep 4 · 22:40O. Kadavy1.43912511112M. Cerny2.651110113133LSep 4 · 21:25M. Cerny4.3313790O. Kadavy1.201511113WSep 4 · 19:55D. Bochnak1.6711991282M. Cerny2.105111110103WSep 4 · 19:25J. Zacharda2.255670M. Cerny1.571111113LSep 3 · 22:03M. Kulisek1.9191111133M. Cerny1.801194111LSep 3 · 20:55M. Cerny1.61614851M. Kulisek2.20111211113
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