TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13053145
Played Aug 31Finished
Pavel Benes
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118118711117––
Jan Kocab
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingPavel Benes above · Jan Kocab below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 74 set 4, 11-7
74 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Benes 15–21 Jan Kocab Pavel Benes has won 15 of their 36 meetings.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Benes)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kocab form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenes 1.73 / Kocab 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Benes)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13053145
Benes1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 84 of 150
Up 2–0, closes it93% 40 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it73% 58 of 79
Kocab2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 25 of 67
Down 0–1, comes back20% 8 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBenes6wins
AwayKocab4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderBenes leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenes100%5 of 5
AwayKocab80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benes5Kocab5n = 10split evenly
S2Benes7Kocab3n = 10Benes took 7 of 10
S3Benes6Kocab4n = 10Benes took 6 of 10
S4Benes3Kocab1n = 4Benes took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBenesKocabB − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match33.431.2+2.2per matchSweeps42+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenesKocabBasisWin rate · lifetime272 / 574 vs 124 / 25747.4%48.3%272 / 574 vs 124 / 257Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.336.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BenesBenes 1.73/Kocab 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Benes won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 31 · 11:25P. Benes—1111113J. Kocab—8880
WAug 25 · 13:53P. Benes—11711113J. Kocab—811491
WAug 25 · 12:55P. Benes—1111113J. Kocab—9550
LAug 24 · 07:25P. Benes—71360J. Kocab—1115113
WAug 21 · 09:25P. Benes—41111113J. Kocab—118971
WAug 16 · 14:50P. Benes—1111113J. Kocab—7590
WAug 14 · 21:35P. Benes—1111113J. Kocab—5730
LAug 14 · 19:20P. Benes—615101182J. Kocab—1113129113
LAug 13 · 08:25P. Benes—211491J. Kocab—11511113
LJul 16 · 10:55P. Benes—11750J. Kocab—1311113
P. Benes10
WSep 3 · 10:40P. Benes1.5711611133J. Kocab2.259117111WSep 3 · 09:25J. Benak1.73131111492P. Benes2.00154711113WSep 3 · 08:25P. Benes1.80101111133M. Brozek1.911289111WSep 3 · 06:55J. Kocab2.10591171P. Benes1.6711116113LSep 2 · 14:25P. Benes2.6010412111M. Cerny1.45121110133WSep 2 · 13:25D. Vesecky1.409630P. Benes2.751111113WSep 2 · 12:25P. Benes2.751131011113M. Cerny1.4041112952WSep 2 · 10:55J. Zacharda1.7378120P. Benes2.001111143WSep 1 · 10:30P. Benes1.731112113J. Kocab2.0051030LSep 1 · 08:55P. Benes1.80611811102M. Brozek1.91118114123
J. Kocab10
LSep 3 · 10:40P. Benes1.5711611133J. Kocab2.259117111WSep 3 · 08:55J. Kocab1.73111011113M. Brozek2.00512341LSep 3 · 07:55J. Kocab1.83811911102J. Benak1.83113115123LSep 3 · 06:55J. Kocab2.10591171P. Benes1.6711116113LSep 1 · 10:30P. Benes1.731112113J. Kocab2.0051030WSep 1 · 09:25J. Kocab1.7311711113D. Vesecky2.00211761LSep 1 · 07:55P. Benes1.831112113J. Kocab1.8361080WSep 1 · 07:25M. Brozek2.3812117462J. Kocab1.531091111113LAug 31 · 13:25J. Kocab3.401111111092M. Cerny1.30513812113WAug 31 · 11:55D. Vesecky2.10714461J. Kocab1.67111211113
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