TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13067836
Played Sep 3Finished
Jan Kocab
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111139111151012
Jan Benak
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:08 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Benak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Kocab above · Jan Benak below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 91 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Jan Benak at 54.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Jan Kocab 12–11 Jan Benak Jan Benak has won 11 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:08What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Benak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-11 in 23
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kocab 1519 vs Benak 1744
Benak
Correct
both rated, 225 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kocab 40% vs Benak 20%
Kocab
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kocab 30% vs Benak 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kocab -2 · Benak -3
Benak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Benak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benak form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKocab 1.83 / Benak 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Benak)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13067836
Kocab1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Benak1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKocab4wins
AwayBenak6wins
7 of 10 to a deciderBenak leads 6–4, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKocab66.7%4 of 6
AwayBenak100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kocab6Benak4n = 10Kocab took 6 of 10
S2Kocab4Benak6n = 10Benak took 6 of 10
S3Kocab3Benak7n = 10Benak took 7 of 10
S4Kocab7Benak2n = 9Kocab took 7 of 9
S5Kocab2Benak5n = 7Benak took 5 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKocabBenakK − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match43.843.9−0.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKocabBenakBasisWin rate · lifetime124 / 257 vs 96 / 17048.3%56.5%124 / 257 vs 96 / 170Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.539.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BenakKocab 1.83/Benak 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Benak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Benak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 18 · 06:55J. Kocab—11911113J. Benak—811881
LAug 7 · 12:55J. Kocab—711311112J. Benak—117117133
WAug 6 · 14:09J. Kocab—11116113J. Benak—941171
LAug 6 · 11:55J. Kocab—514118102J. Benak—1112511123
WJul 10 · 14:35J. Kocab—118516113J. Benak—611111482
LJul 10 · 13:25J. Kocab—11891192J. Benak—411115113
WJul 1 · 10:40J. Kocab—127117113J. Benak—101171162
LJul 1 · 06:55J. Kocab—9550J. Benak—1111113
LJun 1 · 10:40J. Kocab—611101192J. Benak—116126113
LJun 1 · 06:55J. Kocab—19961182J. Benak—1711117113
J. Kocab10
LSep 3 · 10:40P. Benes1.5711611133J. Kocab2.259117111WSep 3 · 08:55J. Kocab1.73111011113M. Brozek2.00512341LSep 3 · 06:55J. Kocab2.10591171P. Benes1.6711116113LSep 1 · 10:30P. Benes1.731112113J. Kocab2.0051030WSep 1 · 09:25J. Kocab1.7311711113D. Vesecky2.00211761LSep 1 · 07:55P. Benes1.831112113J. Kocab1.8361080WSep 1 · 07:25M. Brozek2.3812117462J. Kocab1.531091111113LAug 31 · 14:15P. Benes1.7311117113J. Kocab2.00881171LAug 31 · 13:25J. Kocab3.401111111092M. Cerny1.30513812113WAug 31 · 11:55D. Vesecky2.10714461J. Kocab1.67111211113
J. Benak10
LSep 6 · 10:24J. Benak2.104580M. Cerny1.671111113WSep 6 · 08:55D. Vesecky1.7391080J. Benak2.001112113WSep 6 · 08:25M. Cerny1.61912971J. Benak2.20111011113WSep 6 · 07:25J. Benak2.631210113143D. Bochnak1.441012811122LSep 4 · 10:28J. Benak1.7114951182V. Nadvornik2.001211113113WSep 4 · 09:25A. Rek2.50611631J. Benak1.5011811113WSep 4 · 08:25J. Benak1.731111117113V. Nadvornik2.0013951152WSep 4 · 06:55J. Vonasek2.75711120J. Benak1.401113143LSep 3 · 10:09M. Brozek2.251114611113J. Benak1.5791611972LSep 3 · 09:25J. Benak1.73131111492P. Benes2.00154711113
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