TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13073598
Played Sep 4Finished
Jan Benak
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1113119115711115
Vaclav Nadvornik
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:38 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeJan Benak to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Benak above · Vaclav Nadvornik below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 94 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Jan Benak at 54.9%
94 points played in total.
H2H Jan Benak 6–2 Vaclav Nadvornik Vaclav Nadvornik has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:38What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Benak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-2 in 8
Benak
Correct
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Benak 1729 vs Nadvornik 1629
Benak
Correct
both rated, 100 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benak 40% vs Nadvornik 60%
Nadvornik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benak 40% vs Nadvornik 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Benak +1 · Nadvornik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Benak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benak form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenak 1.73 / Nadvornik 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Benak)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13073598
Benak1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 33 of 59
Up 2–0, closes it77% 10 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it77% 17 of 22
Nadvornik2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 22 of 53
Down 0–1, comes back20% 4 of 20
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeBenak6wins
AwayNadvornik2wins
3 of 8 to a deciderBenak leads 6–2, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenak100%3 of 3
AwayNadvornik40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benak3Nadvornik5n = 8Nadvornik took 5 of 8
S2Benak6Nadvornik2n = 8Benak took 6 of 8
S3Benak7Nadvornik1n = 8Benak took 7 of 8
S4Benak3Nadvornik4n = 7Nadvornik took 4 of 7
S5Benak2Nadvornik1n = 3Benak took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home338%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricBenakNadvornikB − NBasisWins62+4in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match43.435.4+8.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenakNadvornikBasisWin rate · lifetime97 / 172 vs 166 / 31456.4%52.9%97 / 172 vs 166 / 314Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.537.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BenakBenak 1.73/Nadvornik 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Benak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Benak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 4 · 08:25J. Benak—1111117113V. Nadvornik—13951152
WFeb 13 · 07:55J. Benak—1111113V. Nadvornik—2970
WJul 31 · 11:25J. Benak—11115113V. Nadvornik—631161
WJul 30 · 08:25J. Benak—156117113V. Nadvornik—131191132
LFeb 13 · 08:55J. Benak—5811111V. Nadvornik—11117133
WJan 21 · 13:25J. Benak—101111113V. Nadvornik—126421
WJan 11 · 23:05J. Benak—91111113V. Nadvornik—114731
LJan 11 · 21:55J. Benak—91118892V. Nadvornik—1191611113
J. Benak10
LSep 6 · 10:24J. Benak2.104580M. Cerny1.671111113WSep 6 · 08:55D. Vesecky1.7391080J. Benak2.001112113WSep 6 · 08:25M. Cerny1.61912971J. Benak2.20111011113WSep 6 · 07:25J. Benak2.631210113143D. Bochnak1.441012811122LSep 4 · 10:28J. Benak1.7114951182V. Nadvornik2.001211113113WSep 4 · 09:25A. Rek2.50611631J. Benak1.5011811113WSep 4 · 06:55J. Vonasek2.75711120J. Benak1.401113143LSep 3 · 10:09M. Brozek2.251114611113J. Benak1.5791611972LSep 3 · 09:25J. Benak1.73131111492P. Benes2.00154711113WSep 3 · 07:55J. Kocab1.83811911102J. Benak1.83113115123
V. Nadvornik10
WSep 4 · 10:28J. Benak1.7114951182V. Nadvornik2.001211113113WSep 4 · 08:55J. Vonasek2.25611114102V. Nadvornik1.57117911123WSep 4 · 07:25V. Nadvornik1.8381111113A. Rek1.83118871LAug 25 · 10:23V. Nadvornik1.30106111762V. Jr3.401211315113LAug 25 · 09:25M. Beran2.381111113V. Nadvornik1.534570WAug 25 · 08:25V. Nadvornik1.25611911113V. Jr3.7511611752WAug 25 · 06:55A. Langer2.2061180V. Nadvornik1.611113113LAug 22 · 18:29J. Vonasek2.38111111113V. Nadvornik1.53135771WAug 22 · 16:55V. Nadvornik1.3091111113M. Kulisek3.40116771WAug 22 · 15:55V. Nadvornik1.501113113O. Fiklik2.5081160
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