TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13073977
Played Sep 4Finished
Jan Vonasek
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
6111171194111012
Vaclav Nadvornik
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:12 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeVaclav Nadvornik to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Vonasek above · Vaclav Nadvornik below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 92 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Vaclav Nadvornik at 65.7%
92 points played in total.
H2H Jan Vonasek 2–6 Vaclav Nadvornik Jan Vonasek has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:12What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Nadvornik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-6 in 8
Nadvornik
Correct
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vonasek 1594 vs Nadvornik 1649
Nadvornik
Correct
both rated, 55 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vonasek 40% vs Nadvornik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vonasek 60% vs Nadvornik 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vonasek +1 · Nadvornik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Nadvornik) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nadvornik form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVonasek 2.25 / Nadvornik 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 61%
Edge (Nadvornik)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13073977
Vonasek2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 69 of 186
Down 0–1, comes back15% 16 of 105
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 58
Nadvornik1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 30 of 47
Up 2–0, closes it94% 17 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it77% 20 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeVonasek2wins
AwayNadvornik6wins
2 of 8 to a deciderNadvornik leads 6–2, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVonasekn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayNadvornik85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vonasek1Nadvornik7n = 8Nadvornik took 7 of 8
S2Vonasek3Nadvornik5n = 8Nadvornik took 5 of 8
S3Vonasek6Nadvornik2n = 8Vonasek took 6 of 8
S4Vonasek2Nadvornik3n = 5Nadvornik took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricVonasekNadvornikV − NBasisWins26−4in 8 meetingsFirst set17−6of 8Avg pointsper match36.639.5−2.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVonasekNadvornikBasisWin rate · lifetime357 / 727 vs 167 / 31549.1%53%357 / 727 vs 167 / 315Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NadvornikVonasek 2.25/Nadvornik 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.5%
Nadvornik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Nadvornik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 4 · 08:55J. Vonasek—611114102V. Nadvornik—117911123
WAug 22 · 18:29J. Vonasek—111111113V. Nadvornik—135771
WAug 22 · 14:55J. Vonasek—1111143V. Nadvornik—97120
LFeb 27 · 10:28J. Vonasek—781391V. Nadvornik—111111113
LFeb 27 · 07:20J. Vonasek—71090V. Nadvornik—1112113
LFeb 18 · 10:50J. Vonasek—5760V. Nadvornik—1111113
LFeb 18 · 07:20J. Vonasek—99111172V. Nadvornik—111158113
LOct 20 · 08:55J. Vonasek—7911161V. Nadvornik—11119183
J. Vonasek10
WSep 6 · 21:18M. Sulc2.381291181J. Vonasek1.5314118113LSep 6 · 20:20M. Sulc3.2511614113J. Vonasek1.337111271LSep 6 · 19:50D. Hyza1.611111133J. Vonasek2.2086110LSep 6 · 18:50J. Vonasek2.10410110M. Kulisek1.671112133LSep 4 · 09:59J. Vonasek2.20111951A. Rek1.6191111113WSep 4 · 07:55J. Vonasek2.38781211113A. Rek1.53111110842LSep 4 · 06:55J. Vonasek2.75711120J. Benak1.401113143LSep 2 · 13:50A. Rek1.5011911113J. Vonasek2.40711871LSep 2 · 12:50J. Vonasek2.38641161A. Rek1.5311114113WSep 2 · 11:20A. Langer2.258240J. Vonasek1.571111113
V. Nadvornik10
WSep 4 · 10:28J. Benak1.7114951182V. Nadvornik2.001211113113LSep 4 · 08:25J. Benak1.731111117113V. Nadvornik2.0013951152WSep 4 · 07:25V. Nadvornik1.8381111113A. Rek1.83118871LAug 25 · 10:23V. Nadvornik1.30106111762V. Jr3.401211315113LAug 25 · 09:25M. Beran2.381111113V. Nadvornik1.534570WAug 25 · 08:25V. Nadvornik1.25611911113V. Jr3.7511611752WAug 25 · 06:55A. Langer2.2061180V. Nadvornik1.611113113LAug 22 · 18:29J. Vonasek2.38111111113V. Nadvornik1.53135771WAug 22 · 16:55V. Nadvornik1.3091111113M. Kulisek3.40116771WAug 22 · 15:55V. Nadvornik1.501113113O. Fiklik2.5081160
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