TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13008262
Played Aug 25Finished
Matej Beran
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114115117––––
Vaclav Nadvornik
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:52 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeVaclav Nadvornik to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMatej Beran above · Vaclav Nadvornik below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 49 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Vaclav Nadvornik at 57.7%
49 points played in total.
H2H Matej Beran 2–1 Vaclav Nadvornik Vaclav Nadvornik has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:52What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Nadvornik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Beran 1547 vs Nadvornik 1645
Nadvornik
Wrong
both rated, 99 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Beran 40% vs Nadvornik 80%
Nadvornik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Beran 40% vs Nadvornik 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Beran -2 · Nadvornik +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Nadvornik) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nadvornik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBeran 2.38 / Nadvornik 1.53
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Nadvornik)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13008262
Beran2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog65% won 13 of 20
Down 0–1, comes back36% 4 of 11
Down 0–2, comes back33% 2 of 6
Nadvornik1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 33 of 53
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it75% 24 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeBeran2wins
AwayNadvornik1wins
Beran leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Beran2Nadvornik1n = 3Beran took 2 of 3
S2Beran2Nadvornik1n = 3Beran took 2 of 3
S3Beran3Nadvornik0n = 3Beran took 3 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home267%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricBeranNadvornikB − NBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match33.328.7+4.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBeranNadvornikBasisWin rate · lifetime65 / 138 vs 165 / 31447.1%52.6%65 / 138 vs 165 / 314Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NadvornikBeran 2.38/Nadvornik 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.8%
Nadvornik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Beran won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 17 · 07:25M. Beran—791151V. Nadvornik—11117113
WSep 11 · 09:55M. Beran—1111113V. Nadvornik—9580
WSep 11 · 07:25M. Beran—1212113V. Nadvornik—101040
M. Beran10
LSep 3 · 17:53M. Sochor1.571111123M. Beran2.2555100LSep 3 · 16:55M. Beran1.73811931P. Moravec2.0011611113LSep 3 · 15:55M. Beran1.911193111M. Sochor1.8091111133LSep 3 · 14:55M. Beran2.00101181142J. Hrncir1.73129114113LSep 1 · 01:50P. Moravec2.501112113M. Beran1.5061080LAug 31 · 17:18M. Beran1.67711511102D. Tichy2.10117116123WAug 31 · 15:50M. Beran1.61111111113D. Tichy2.20551341LAug 31 · 14:20J. Cerny2.6371111113M. Beran1.44118521WAug 27 · 21:53M. Beran1.7211115113O. Fiklik2.00881181WAug 27 · 20:55M. Beran1.8391111113O. Fiklik1.83116861
V. Nadvornik10
WSep 4 · 10:28J. Benak1.7114951182V. Nadvornik2.001211113113WSep 4 · 08:55J. Vonasek2.25611114102V. Nadvornik1.57117911123LSep 4 · 08:25J. Benak1.731111117113V. Nadvornik2.0013951152WSep 4 · 07:25V. Nadvornik1.8381111113A. Rek1.83118871LAug 25 · 10:23V. Nadvornik1.30106111762V. Jr3.401211315113WAug 25 · 08:25V. Nadvornik1.25611911113V. Jr3.7511611752WAug 25 · 06:55A. Langer2.2061180V. Nadvornik1.611113113LAug 22 · 18:29J. Vonasek2.38111111113V. Nadvornik1.53135771WAug 22 · 16:55V. Nadvornik1.3091111113M. Kulisek3.40116771WAug 22 · 15:55V. Nadvornik1.501113113O. Fiklik2.5081160
Upcoming Matches
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