TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13051974
Played Aug 31Finished
Jiri Cerny
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
711118115112––
Matej Beran
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:45 and never touched — 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timeMatej Beran to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJiri Cerny above · Matej Beran below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-2
Point 66 set 4, 11-2 — our read held Matej Beran at 64.5%
66 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Cerny 0–1 Matej Beran Jiri Cerny has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:45What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Beran
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Cerny 1452 vs Beran 1527
Beran
Wrong
both rated, 75 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cerny 40% vs Beran 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cerny 40% vs Beran 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cerny -1 · Beran +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Beran)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Beran form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCerny 2.63 / Beran 1.44
Signal prob.36% / 65%
Edge (Beran)-0.0pp
TT Cup · #13051974
Cerny2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 9 of 20
Down 0–1, comes back33% 3 of 9
Beran1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite50% won 20 of 40
Up 2–0, closes it100% 7 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it71% 10 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeCerny0wins
AwayBeran1wins
1 of 1 to a deciderBeran leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricCernyBeranC − BBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match41.051.0−10.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernyBeranBasisWin rate · lifetime70 / 160 vs 69 / 14843.8%46.6%70 / 160 vs 69 / 148Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BeranCerny 2.63/Beran 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.5%
Beran · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Cerny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 9 · 14:55J. Cerny—12861142M. Beran—1011118113
J. Cerny10
WSep 1 · 01:20J. Cerny2.2011136113D. Tichy1.618111161WSep 1 · 24:20J. Cerny2.0014119113P. Moravec1.731251151WAug 31 · 17:49J. Cerny2.001111113P. Moravec1.738590LAug 24 · 17:59D. Tichy1.7381111113J. Cerny2.00118571WAug 24 · 16:50J. Cerny1.67911128113V. Jr2.10118101132WAug 24 · 15:20D. Sykora1.44711761J. Cerny2.6311911113LAug 24 · 14:50D. Tichy1.83119811113J. Cerny1.8381111372LAug 18 · 18:03J. Cerny1.8091370M. Sochor1.911115113LAug 18 · 16:55J. Cerny2.00911431J. Volek1.7311911113LAug 18 · 15:55J. Cerny1.731177111M. Sochor2.0081111133
M. Beran10
LSep 3 · 17:53M. Sochor1.571111123M. Beran2.2555100LSep 3 · 16:55M. Beran1.73811931P. Moravec2.0011611113LSep 3 · 15:55M. Beran1.911193111M. Sochor1.8091111133LSep 3 · 14:55M. Beran2.00101181142J. Hrncir1.73129114113LSep 1 · 01:50P. Moravec2.501112113M. Beran1.5061080LAug 31 · 17:18M. Beran1.67711511102D. Tichy2.10117116123WAug 31 · 15:50M. Beran1.61111111113D. Tichy2.20551341WAug 27 · 21:53M. Beran1.7211115113O. Fiklik2.00881181WAug 27 · 20:55M. Beran1.8391111113O. Fiklik1.83116861LAug 27 · 19:55M. Beran3.251291011112M. Brozek1.331011128133
Upcoming Matches
J. Cerny
Nothing scheduled
M. Beran
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