TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13000773
Played Aug 24Finished
Dominik Tichy
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
118911811113117
Jiri Cerny
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:41 and never touched — 57.9% is still 57.9%
Graded at full timeDominik Tichy to win
57.9%
57.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDominik Tichy above · Jiri Cerny below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 90 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Dominik Tichy at 57.9%
90 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Tichy 1–0 Jiri Cerny Jiri Cerny has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 06:41What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Cerny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Tichy 1518 vs Cerny 1470
Tichy
Correct
both rated, 47 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tichy 40% vs Cerny 20%
Tichy
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tichy 30% vs Cerny 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tichy +2 · Cerny -3
Cerny
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Tichy) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cerny form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTichy 1.83 / Cerny 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Tichy)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13000773
Tichy1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Cerny1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeTichy1wins
AwayCerny0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderTichy leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricTichyCernyT − CBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match50.040.0+10.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTichyCernyBasisWin rate · lifetime157 / 240 vs 70 / 15965.4%44%157 / 240 vs 70 / 159Avg sets wonper match2.41.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.038.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TichyTichy 1.83/Cerny 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Tichy · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Tichy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 24 · 14:50D. Tichy—119811113J. Cerny—81111372
D. Tichy10
WSep 5 · 18:04Z. Zahradka1.839118101D. Tichy1.8311711123WSep 5 · 16:55J. Dvorak1.839480D. Tichy1.831111113LSep 5 · 16:25Z. Zahradka2.25111111113D. Tichy1.57913441LSep 5 · 15:25D. Tichy1.731812861M. Filipek2.00201011113LSep 1 · 01:20J. Cerny2.2011136113D. Tichy1.618111161WAug 31 · 17:18M. Beran1.67711511102D. Tichy2.10117116123LAug 31 · 15:50M. Beran1.61111111113D. Tichy2.20551341LAug 31 · 14:50D. Tichy2.0091171162P. Moravec1.73116118113LAug 30 · 14:28D. Tichy1.531110711102J. Kulveit2.38712113123WAug 30 · 13:25J. Melichar1.837411121D. Tichy1.8311118143
J. Cerny10
WSep 1 · 01:20J. Cerny2.2011136113D. Tichy1.618111161WSep 1 · 24:20J. Cerny2.0014119113P. Moravec1.731251151WAug 31 · 17:49J. Cerny2.001111113P. Moravec1.738590WAug 31 · 14:20J. Cerny2.6371111113M. Beran1.44118521LAug 24 · 17:59D. Tichy1.7381111113J. Cerny2.00118571WAug 24 · 16:50J. Cerny1.67911128113V. Jr2.10118101132WAug 24 · 15:20D. Sykora1.44711761J. Cerny2.6311911113LAug 18 · 18:03J. Cerny1.8091370M. Sochor1.911115113LAug 18 · 16:55J. Cerny2.00911431J. Volek1.7311911113LAug 18 · 15:55J. Cerny1.731177111M. Sochor2.0081111133
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