TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13002135
Played Aug 24Finished
Jiri Cerny
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111181210811113
Vaclav Hejda Jr
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:11 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeJiri Cerny to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Cerny above · Vaclav Hejda Jr below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 94 set 5, 11-3 — our read held Jiri Cerny at 55.8%
94 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Cerny 2–2 Vaclav Hejda Jr Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:11What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Cerny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cerny 1457 vs Jr 1565
Jr
Wrong
both rated, 108 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cerny 20% vs Jr 60%
Jr
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cerny 30% vs Jr 50%
Jr
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cerny +1 · Jr -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Cerny)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCerny 1.67 / Jr 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Cerny)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13002135
Cerny1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite49% won 27 of 55
Up 2–0, closes it79% 15 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it58% 21 of 36
Jr2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 86 of 195
Down 0–1, comes back26% 23 of 87
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeCerny2wins
AwayJr2wins
Level at 2–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cerny2Jr2n = 4split evenly
S2Cerny3Jr1n = 4Cerny took 3 of 4
S3Cerny2Jr2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricCernyJrC − JBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match30.530.8−0.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernyJrBasisWin rate · lifetime69 / 158 vs 371 / 77343.7%48%69 / 158 vs 371 / 773Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.239.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernyCerny 1.67/Jr 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Cerny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Cerny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WMay 26 · 14:20J. Cerny—1111113V. Jr—7970
WMay 4 · 17:25J. Cerny—1111113V. Jr—7890
LFeb 9 · 15:55J. Cerny—1011881V. Jr—12811113
LJan 20 · 17:25J. Cerny—21070V. Jr—1112113
J. Cerny10
WSep 1 · 01:20J. Cerny2.2011136113D. Tichy1.618111161WSep 1 · 24:20J. Cerny2.0014119113P. Moravec1.731251151WAug 31 · 17:49J. Cerny2.001111113P. Moravec1.738590WAug 31 · 14:20J. Cerny2.6371111113M. Beran1.44118521LAug 24 · 17:59D. Tichy1.7381111113J. Cerny2.00118571WAug 24 · 15:20D. Sykora1.44711761J. Cerny2.6311911113LAug 24 · 14:50D. Tichy1.83119811113J. Cerny1.8381111372LAug 18 · 18:03J. Cerny1.8091370M. Sochor1.911115113LAug 18 · 16:55J. Cerny2.00911431J. Volek1.7311911113LAug 18 · 15:55J. Cerny1.731177111M. Sochor2.0081111133
V. Jr10
LSep 2 · 13:19A. Langer1.8371411113V. Jr1.871112391LSep 2 · 12:20A. Langer1.801111113V. Jr1.917480LSep 2 · 11:50A. Rek1.501413113V. Jr2.50121180LSep 2 · 10:50V. Jr2.00712571J. Vonasek1.73111011113WSep 1 · 14:35V. Jr2.5011115183A. Rek1.487611161WSep 1 · 13:25V. Jr2.38511714113O. Fiklik1.53117111292WSep 1 · 11:55A. Langer1.8011101251V. Jr1.91131210113WSep 1 · 11:25A. Rek1.50861161V. Jr2.5011118113WAug 31 · 13:23V. Jr1.7371111113M. Sulc2.00117641WAug 31 · 12:20V. Jr2.101113113M. Sulc1.6781160
Upcoming Matches
J. Cerny
Nothing scheduled
V. Jr
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