TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13059156
Played Sep 1Finished
Vaclav Hejda Jr
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1171165111816––
Adam Martin Rek
Away
1.48
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:05 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVaclav Hejda Jr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVaclav Hejda Jr above · Adam Martin Rek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 18-16
Point 85 set 4, 18-16 — our read held Vaclav Hejda Jr at 54.0%
85 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Hejda Jr 24–33 Adam Martin Rek Vaclav Hejda Jr has won 24 of their 57 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:05What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.48 (63%)
Rek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-33 in 57
Rek
Wrong
gap of 9 in 57, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1598 vs Rek 1701
Rek
Wrong
both rated, 103 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 100% vs Rek 60%
Jr
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 60% vs Rek 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr +5 · Rek +2
Jr
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Rek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 2.50 / Rek 1.48
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Rek)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13059156
Jr2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 86 of 188
Down 0–1, comes back27% 22 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 36
Rek1.48
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 96 of 169
Up 2–0, closes it89% 42 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it68% 66 of 97
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJr5wins
AwayRek5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJr83.3%5 of 6
AwayRek100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr6Rek4n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S2Jr3Rek7n = 10Rek took 7 of 10
S3Jr1Rek9n = 10Rek took 9 of 10
S4Jr5Rek1n = 6Jr took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricJrRekJ − RBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.236.3−1.1per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrRekBasisWin rate · lifetime383 / 786 vs 310 / 53548.7%57.9%383 / 786 vs 310 / 535Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RekJr 2.50/Rek 1.48
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.6%
Rek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 11:20V. Jr—91180A. Rek—1113113
LAug 21 · 10:55V. Jr—11770A. Rek—1311113
WAug 17 · 11:25V. Jr—11127113A. Rek—3101141
LAug 17 · 10:25V. Jr—11106101A. Rek—91211123
LAug 17 · 08:25V. Jr—58100A. Rek—1111123
WJul 31 · 11:20V. Jr—11116113A. Rek—751161
WJul 20 · 12:50V. Jr—111016113A. Rek—8121491
WJun 15 · 10:50V. Jr—115514123A. Rek—6111112102
LJun 3 · 10:15V. Jr—11940A. Rek—1311113
WJun 3 · 07:25V. Jr—11117113A. Rek—571171
V. Jr10
LSep 2 · 13:19A. Langer1.8371411113V. Jr1.871112391LSep 2 · 12:20A. Langer1.801111113V. Jr1.917480LSep 2 · 11:50A. Rek1.501413113V. Jr2.50121180LSep 2 · 10:50V. Jr2.00712571J. Vonasek1.73111011113WSep 1 · 13:25V. Jr2.38511714113O. Fiklik1.53117111292WSep 1 · 11:55A. Langer1.8011101251V. Jr1.91131210113WSep 1 · 11:25A. Rek1.50861161V. Jr2.5011118113WAug 31 · 13:23V. Jr1.7371111113M. Sulc2.00117641WAug 31 · 12:20V. Jr2.101113113M. Sulc1.6781160LAug 31 · 11:20V. Jr2.3891180A. Rek1.531113113
A. Rek10
WSep 5 · 22:03O. Fiklik2.2510890A. Rek1.571211113LSep 5 · 20:55A. Rek1.61811861O. Fiklik2.2011411113LSep 5 · 19:55A. Rek1.83119781M. Kulisek1.8381111113LSep 5 · 18:55A. Rek2.50861161M. Brozek1.5011116113WSep 4 · 09:59J. Vonasek2.20111951A. Rek1.6191111113LSep 4 · 09:25A. Rek2.50611631J. Benak1.5011811113LSep 4 · 07:55J. Vonasek2.38781211113A. Rek1.53111110842WSep 2 · 11:50A. Rek1.501413113V. Jr2.50121180LSep 1 · 11:25A. Rek1.50861161V. Jr2.5011118113WAug 31 · 11:20V. Jr2.3891180A. Rek1.531113113
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