TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13050098
Played Aug 31Finished
Vaclav Hejda Jr
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
9111113811––––
Adam Martin Rek
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:13 and never touched — 61.6% is still 61.6%
Graded at full timeAdam Martin Rek to win
61.6%
61.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVaclav Hejda Jr above · Adam Martin Rek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 63 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Adam Martin Rek at 61.6%
63 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Hejda Jr 24–32 Adam Martin Rek Vaclav Hejda Jr has won 24 of their 56 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:13What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Rek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-32 in 56
Rek
Correct
gap of 8 in 56, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1529 vs Rek 1694
Rek
Correct
both rated, 165 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 40% vs Rek 80%
Rek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 60% vs Rek 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr -1 · Rek +3
Rek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Rek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 2.38 / Rek 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Rek)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13050098
Jr2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 86 of 187
Down 0–1, comes back28% 23 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 35
Rek1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 93 of 165
Up 2–0, closes it89% 41 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it67% 63 of 94
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJr6wins
AwayRek4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderJr leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJr85.7%6 of 7
AwayRek100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr7Rek3n = 10Jr took 7 of 10
S2Jr3Rek7n = 10Rek took 7 of 10
S3Jr2Rek8n = 10Rek took 8 of 10
S4Jr5Rek2n = 7Jr took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricJrRekJ − RBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.437.0+0.4per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrRekBasisWin rate · lifetime378 / 780 vs 306 / 52948.5%57.8%378 / 780 vs 306 / 529Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RekJr 2.38/Rek 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.6%
Rek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Rek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 21 · 10:55V. Jr—11770A. Rek—1311113
WAug 17 · 11:25V. Jr—11127113A. Rek—3101141
LAug 17 · 10:25V. Jr—11106101A. Rek—91211123
LAug 17 · 08:25V. Jr—58100A. Rek—1111123
WJul 31 · 11:20V. Jr—11116113A. Rek—751161
WJul 20 · 12:50V. Jr—111016113A. Rek—8121491
WJun 15 · 10:50V. Jr—115514123A. Rek—6111112102
LJun 3 · 10:15V. Jr—11940A. Rek—1311113
WJun 3 · 07:25V. Jr—11117113A. Rek—571171
WApr 29 · 06:55V. Jr—1113114113A. Rek—41541182
V. Jr10
LSep 2 · 13:19A. Langer1.8371411113V. Jr1.871112391LSep 2 · 12:20A. Langer1.801111113V. Jr1.917480LSep 2 · 11:50A. Rek1.501413113V. Jr2.50121180LSep 2 · 10:50V. Jr2.00712571J. Vonasek1.73111011113WSep 1 · 14:35V. Jr2.5011115183A. Rek1.487611161WSep 1 · 13:25V. Jr2.38511714113O. Fiklik1.53117111292WSep 1 · 11:55A. Langer1.8011101251V. Jr1.91131210113WSep 1 · 11:25A. Rek1.50861161V. Jr2.5011118113WAug 31 · 13:23V. Jr1.7371111113M. Sulc2.00117641WAug 31 · 12:20V. Jr2.101113113M. Sulc1.6781160
A. Rek10
WSep 5 · 22:03O. Fiklik2.2510890A. Rek1.571211113LSep 5 · 20:55A. Rek1.61811861O. Fiklik2.2011411113LSep 5 · 19:55A. Rek1.83119781M. Kulisek1.8381111113LSep 5 · 18:55A. Rek2.50861161M. Brozek1.5011116113WSep 4 · 09:59J. Vonasek2.20111951A. Rek1.6191111113LSep 4 · 09:25A. Rek2.50611631J. Benak1.5011811113LSep 4 · 07:55J. Vonasek2.38781211113A. Rek1.53111110842WSep 2 · 11:50A. Rek1.501413113V. Jr2.50121180LSep 1 · 14:35V. Jr2.5011115183A. Rek1.487611161LSep 1 · 11:25A. Rek1.50861161V. Jr2.5011118113
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