TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13054959
Played Sep 1Finished
Adam Martin Rek
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811611118611––
Vaclav Hejda Jr
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:26 and never touched — 55.5% is still 55.5%
Graded at full timeAdam Martin Rek to win
55.5%
55.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAdam Martin Rek above · Vaclav Hejda Jr below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 72 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Adam Martin Rek at 55.5%
72 points played in total.
H2H Adam Martin Rek 33–24 Vaclav Hejda Jr Vaclav Hejda Jr has won 24 of their 57 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:26What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Rek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
33-24 in 57
Rek
Wrong
gap of 9 in 57, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rek 1701 vs Jr 1560
Rek
Wrong
both rated, 141 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rek 80% vs Jr 60%
Rek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rek 60% vs Jr 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rek -1 · Jr +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Rek) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRek 1.50 / Jr 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Rek)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13054959
Rek1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 96 of 169
Up 2–0, closes it89% 42 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it68% 66 of 97
Jr2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 86 of 188
Down 0–1, comes back27% 22 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRek5wins
AwayJr5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRek100%4 of 4
AwayJr83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rek4Jr6n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S2Rek7Jr3n = 10Rek took 7 of 10
S3Rek9Jr1n = 10Rek took 9 of 10
S4Rek1Jr5n = 6Jr took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricRekJrR − JBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.335.2+1.1per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRekJrBasisWin rate · lifetime308 / 532 vs 380 / 78357.9%48.5%308 / 532 vs 380 / 783Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.539.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RekRek 1.50/Jr 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.1%
Rek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 31 · 11:20A. Rek—1113113V. Jr—91180
WAug 21 · 10:55A. Rek—1311113V. Jr—11770
LAug 17 · 11:25A. Rek—3101141V. Jr—11127113
WAug 17 · 10:25A. Rek—91211123V. Jr—11106101
WAug 17 · 08:25A. Rek—1111123V. Jr—58100
LJul 31 · 11:20A. Rek—751161V. Jr—11116113
LJul 20 · 12:50A. Rek—8121491V. Jr—111016113
LJun 15 · 10:50A. Rek—6111112102V. Jr—115514123
WJun 3 · 10:15A. Rek—1311113V. Jr—11940
LJun 3 · 07:25A. Rek—571171V. Jr—11117113
A. Rek10
WSep 5 · 22:03O. Fiklik2.2510890A. Rek1.571211113LSep 5 · 20:55A. Rek1.61811861O. Fiklik2.2011411113LSep 5 · 19:55A. Rek1.83119781M. Kulisek1.8381111113LSep 5 · 18:55A. Rek2.50861161M. Brozek1.5011116113WSep 4 · 09:59J. Vonasek2.20111951A. Rek1.6191111113LSep 4 · 09:25A. Rek2.50611631J. Benak1.5011811113LSep 4 · 07:55J. Vonasek2.38781211113A. Rek1.53111110842LSep 4 · 07:25V. Nadvornik1.8381111113A. Rek1.83118871WSep 2 · 13:50A. Rek1.5011911113J. Vonasek2.40711871WSep 2 · 12:50J. Vonasek2.38641161A. Rek1.5311114113
V. Jr10
LSep 2 · 13:19A. Langer1.8371411113V. Jr1.871112391LSep 2 · 12:20A. Langer1.801111113V. Jr1.917480LSep 2 · 11:50A. Rek1.501413113V. Jr2.50121180LSep 2 · 10:50V. Jr2.00712571J. Vonasek1.73111011113WSep 1 · 14:35V. Jr2.5011115183A. Rek1.487611161WSep 1 · 13:25V. Jr2.38511714113O. Fiklik1.53117111292WSep 1 · 11:55A. Langer1.8011101251V. Jr1.91131210113WAug 31 · 13:23V. Jr1.7371111113M. Sulc2.00117641WAug 31 · 12:20V. Jr2.101113113M. Sulc1.6781160LAug 31 · 11:20V. Jr2.3891180A. Rek1.531113113
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