TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13073057
Played Sep 4Finished
Vaclav Nadvornik
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811118118117––
Adam Martin Rek
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:09 and never touched — 61.1% is still 61.1%
Graded at full timeAdam Martin Rek to win
61.1%
61.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVaclav Nadvornik above · Adam Martin Rek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 75 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Adam Martin Rek at 61.1%
75 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Nadvornik 1–1 Adam Martin Rek Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:09What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Rek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Nadvornik 1655 vs Rek 1648
Nadvornik
Correct
both rated, 7 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nadvornik 40% vs Rek 80%
Rek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nadvornik 40% vs Rek 70%
Rek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nadvornik -2 · Rek +4
Rek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Rek) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNadvornik 1.83 / Rek 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Rek)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13073057
Nadvornik1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Rek1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeNadvornik1wins
AwayRek1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricNadvornikRekN − RBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match39.540.5−1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNadvornikRekBasisWin rate · lifetime167 / 312 vs 314 / 54453.5%57.7%167 / 312 vs 314 / 544Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RekNadvornik 1.83/Rek 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Rek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Nadvornik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 4 · 07:25V. Nadvornik—81111113A. Rek—118871
LAug 6 · 09:25V. Nadvornik—41111662A. Rek—118611113
V. Nadvornik10
WSep 4 · 10:28J. Benak1.7114951182V. Nadvornik2.001211113113WSep 4 · 08:55J. Vonasek2.25611114102V. Nadvornik1.57117911123LSep 4 · 08:25J. Benak1.731111117113V. Nadvornik2.0013951152LAug 25 · 10:23V. Nadvornik1.30106111762V. Jr3.401211315113LAug 25 · 09:25M. Beran2.381111113V. Nadvornik1.534570WAug 25 · 08:25V. Nadvornik1.25611911113V. Jr3.7511611752WAug 25 · 06:55A. Langer2.2061180V. Nadvornik1.611113113LAug 22 · 18:29J. Vonasek2.38111111113V. Nadvornik1.53135771WAug 22 · 16:55V. Nadvornik1.3091111113M. Kulisek3.40116771WAug 22 · 15:55V. Nadvornik1.501113113O. Fiklik2.5081160
A. Rek10
WSep 5 · 22:03O. Fiklik2.2510890A. Rek1.571211113LSep 5 · 20:55A. Rek1.61811861O. Fiklik2.2011411113LSep 5 · 19:55A. Rek1.83119781M. Kulisek1.8381111113LSep 5 · 18:55A. Rek2.50861161M. Brozek1.5011116113WSep 4 · 09:59J. Vonasek2.20111951A. Rek1.6191111113LSep 4 · 09:25A. Rek2.50611631J. Benak1.5011811113LSep 4 · 07:55J. Vonasek2.38781211113A. Rek1.53111110842WSep 2 · 13:50A. Rek1.5011911113J. Vonasek2.40711871WSep 2 · 12:50J. Vonasek2.38641161A. Rek1.5311114113WSep 2 · 11:50A. Rek1.501413113V. Jr2.50121180
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