TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13008286
Played Aug 25Finished
Ales Langer
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
6111113811––––
Vaclav Nadvornik
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:57 and never touched — 54.7% is still 54.7%
Graded at full timeVaclav Nadvornik to win
54.7%
54.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAles Langer above · Vaclav Nadvornik below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 60 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Vaclav Nadvornik at 54.7%
60 points played in total.
H2H Ales Langer 5–2 Vaclav Nadvornik Vaclav Nadvornik has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:57What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Nadvornik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Langer
Wrong
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Langer 1610 vs Nadvornik 1621
Nadvornik
Correct
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Langer 80% vs Nadvornik 40%
Langer
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Langer 70% vs Nadvornik 40%
Langer
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Langer +4 · Nadvornik -1
Langer
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Nadvornik) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nadvornik form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLanger 2.20 / Nadvornik 1.61
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Nadvornik)-1.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13008286
Langer2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog47% won 63 of 135
Down 0–1, comes back29% 20 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 30
Nadvornik1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 32 of 50
Up 2–0, closes it95% 19 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it79% 22 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeLanger5wins
AwayNadvornik2wins
3 of 7 to a deciderLanger leads 5–2, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLanger100%3 of 3
AwayNadvornik50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Langer3Nadvornik4n = 7Nadvornik took 4 of 7
S2Langer3Nadvornik4n = 7Nadvornik took 4 of 7
S3Langer3Nadvornik4n = 7Nadvornik took 4 of 7
S4Langer4Nadvornik2n = 6Langer took 4 of 6
S5Langer3Nadvornik0n = 3Langer took 3 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home343%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricLangerNadvornikL − NBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match41.438.4+3.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLangerNadvornikBasisWin rate · lifetime250 / 510 vs 165 / 31649%52.2%250 / 510 vs 165 / 316Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NadvornikLanger 2.20/Nadvornik 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.5%
Nadvornik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Nadvornik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LAug 25 · 06:55A. Langer—61180V. Nadvornik—1113113
WAug 6 · 10:03A. Langer—117119113V. Nadvornik—31111192
WAug 6 · 06:55A. Langer—111311113V. Nadvornik—615691
LOct 21 · 08:25A. Langer—611951V. Nadvornik—11611113
WOct 20 · 07:25A. Langer—9111011113V. Nadvornik—11912992
WOct 7 · 10:30A. Langer—11411113V. Nadvornik—711881
WOct 7 · 06:55A. Langer—811911113V. Nadvornik—11911542
A. Langer10
WSep 4 · 13:29A. Langer2.006111011113O. Fiklik1.7311912982WSep 4 · 12:20A. Langer2.0011711113O. Fiklik1.73911531LSep 4 · 11:20A. Langer2.258116111D. Hyza1.5711911133LSep 4 · 10:20A. Langer2.5058100M. Brozek1.501111123WSep 2 · 13:19A. Langer1.8371411113V. Jr1.871112391WSep 2 · 12:20A. Langer1.801111113V. Jr1.917480LSep 2 · 11:20A. Langer2.258240J. Vonasek1.571111113LSep 2 · 10:20A. Langer2.3871181142A. Rek1.53113117113LSep 1 · 14:05O. Fiklik1.68713611113A. Langer2.05111111692LSep 1 · 12:55A. Langer2.2591111872A. Rek1.57117811113
V. Nadvornik10
WSep 4 · 10:28J. Benak1.7114951182V. Nadvornik2.001211113113WSep 4 · 08:55J. Vonasek2.25611114102V. Nadvornik1.57117911123LSep 4 · 08:25J. Benak1.731111117113V. Nadvornik2.0013951152WSep 4 · 07:25V. Nadvornik1.8381111113A. Rek1.83118871LAug 25 · 10:23V. Nadvornik1.30106111762V. Jr3.401211315113LAug 25 · 09:25M. Beran2.381111113V. Nadvornik1.534570WAug 25 · 08:25V. Nadvornik1.25611911113V. Jr3.7511611752LAug 22 · 18:29J. Vonasek2.38111111113V. Nadvornik1.53135771WAug 22 · 16:55V. Nadvornik1.3091111113M. Kulisek3.40116771WAug 22 · 15:55V. Nadvornik1.501113113O. Fiklik2.5081160
Upcoming Matches
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