TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12475447
Played Aug 22Finished
Vaclav Nadvornik
Home
1.30
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911116117117––
Marek Kulisek
Away
3.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:36 and never touched — 81.1% is still 81.1%
Graded at full timeVaclav Nadvornik to win
81.1%
81.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVaclav Nadvornik above · Marek Kulisek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 73 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Vaclav Nadvornik at 81.1%
73 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Nadvornik 10–2 Marek Kulisek Marek Kulisek has won 2 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:36What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Nadvornik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-2 in 12
Nadvornik
Correct
gap of 8 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nadvornik 1624 vs Kulisek 1589
Nadvornik
Correct
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nadvornik 40% vs Kulisek 60%
Kulisek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nadvornik 30% vs Kulisek 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nadvornik +1 · Kulisek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% — Strong (leans Nadvornik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kulisek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNadvornik 1.30 / Kulisek 3.40
Signal prob.81% / 19%
Edge (Nadvornik)+8.8pp
TT Cup · #12475447
Nadvornik1.30
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 31 of 49
Up 2–0, closes it95% 20 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it77% 23 of 30
Kulisek3.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 102 of 276
Down 0–1, comes back22% 35 of 162
Down 0–2, comes back7% 6 of 91
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNadvornik8wins
AwayKulisek2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderNadvornik leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNadvornik83.3%5 of 6
AwayKulisek25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nadvornik6Kulisek4n = 10Nadvornik took 6 of 10
S2Nadvornik8Kulisek2n = 10Nadvornik took 8 of 10
S3Nadvornik7Kulisek3n = 10Nadvornik took 7 of 10
S4Nadvornik6Kulisek2n = 8Nadvornik took 6 of 8
S5Nadvornik1Kulisek2n = 3Kulisek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNadvornikKulisekN − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.335.0+4.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNadvornikKulisekBasisWin rate · lifetime163 / 312 vs 377 / 84652.2%44.6%163 / 312 vs 377 / 846Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NadvornikNadvornik 1.30/Kulisek 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
81.1%
Nadvornik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Nadvornik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 22 · 16:55V. Nadvornik—91111113M. Kulisek—116771
WMar 12 · 21:25V. Nadvornik—11124113M. Kulisek—9101181
WFeb 2 · 21:55V. Nadvornik—1112113M. Kulisek—91050
LJan 24 · 08:25V. Nadvornik—11311852M. Kulisek—911611113
WDec 10 · 22:25V. Nadvornik—11175103M. Kulisek—7151191
LDec 7 · 19:55V. Nadvornik—71111862M. Kulisek—118711113
WDec 3 · 23:30V. Nadvornik—11411103M. Kulisek—411891
WDec 3 · 20:55V. Nadvornik—81111113M. Kulisek—116741
WOct 25 · 16:55V. Nadvornik—611711103M. Kulisek—11611492
WMar 2 · 17:40V. Nadvornik—1111113M. Kulisek—9450
V. Nadvornik10
WSep 4 · 10:28J. Benak1.7114951182V. Nadvornik2.001211113113WSep 4 · 08:55J. Vonasek2.25611114102V. Nadvornik1.57117911123LSep 4 · 08:25J. Benak1.731111117113V. Nadvornik2.0013951152WSep 4 · 07:25V. Nadvornik1.8381111113A. Rek1.83118871LAug 25 · 10:23V. Nadvornik1.30106111762V. Jr3.401211315113LAug 25 · 09:25M. Beran2.381111113V. Nadvornik1.534570WAug 25 · 08:25V. Nadvornik1.25611911113V. Jr3.7511611752WAug 25 · 06:55A. Langer2.2061180V. Nadvornik1.611113113LAug 22 · 18:29J. Vonasek2.38111111113V. Nadvornik1.53135771WAug 22 · 15:55V. Nadvornik1.501113113O. Fiklik2.5081160
M. Kulisek10
LSep 6 · 21:48D. Hyza1.3611114113M. Kulisek3.00861191LSep 6 · 20:50M. Kulisek2.7577110D. Hyza1.401111133WSep 6 · 19:20M. Sulc2.0081370M. Kulisek1.731115113WSep 6 · 18:50J. Vonasek2.10410110M. Kulisek1.671112133WSep 5 · 22:35M. Brozek1.751212881M. Kulisek1.95141011113WSep 5 · 21:25M. Kulisek2.0017101111113M. Brozek1.7319126672WSep 5 · 19:55A. Rek1.83119781M. Kulisek1.8381111113LSep 5 · 19:25O. Fiklik2.00971211113M. Kulisek1.73111110672WSep 3 · 22:03M. Kulisek1.9191111133M. Cerny1.801194111WSep 3 · 20:55M. Cerny1.61614851M. Kulisek2.20111211113
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