TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13071351
Played Sep 3Finished
Martin Cerny
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
6111412811511––
Marek Kulisek
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:28 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeMartin Cerny to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingMartin Cerny above · Marek Kulisek below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 78 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Martin Cerny at 56.5%
78 points played in total.
H2H Martin Cerny 40–53 Marek Kulisek Martin Cerny has won 40 of their 93 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:28What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Cerny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
40-53 in 93
Kulisek
Correct
gap of 13 in 93, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cerny 1871 vs Kulisek 1629
Cerny
Wrong
both rated, 242 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cerny 40% vs Kulisek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cerny 70% vs Kulisek 40%
Cerny
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cerny -2 · Kulisek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Cerny) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cerny form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCerny 1.61 / Kulisek 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 40%
Edge (Cerny)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13071351
Cerny1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 168 of 259
Up 2–0, closes it98% 79 of 81
Up 1–0, closes it85% 115 of 136
Kulisek2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 112 of 296
Down 0–1, comes back22% 38 of 170
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 95
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCerny2wins
AwayKulisek8wins
7 of 10 to a deciderKulisek leads 8–2, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCerny40%2 of 5
AwayKulisek100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cerny5Kulisek5n = 10split evenly
S2Cerny4Kulisek6n = 10Kulisek took 6 of 10
S3Cerny7Kulisek3n = 10Cerny took 7 of 10
S4Cerny1Kulisek9n = 10Kulisek took 9 of 10
S5Cerny2Kulisek5n = 7Kulisek took 5 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCernyKulisekC − KBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.742.8−4.1per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernyKulisekBasisWin rate · lifetime474 / 827 vs 381 / 85757.3%44.5%474 / 827 vs 381 / 857Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernyCerny 1.61/Kulisek 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.5%
Cerny · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kulisek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 20 · 19:25M. Cerny—11811792M. Kulisek—811911113
LAug 9 · 20:50M. Cerny—11711232M. Kulisek—911811113
LJul 9 · 10:55M. Cerny—511781M. Kulisek—11511113
LJul 4 · 21:25M. Cerny—71111732M. Kulisek—119711113
LJun 15 · 16:55M. Cerny—681181M. Kulisek—11115113
WJun 13 · 14:30M. Cerny—111172113M. Kulisek—49111142
WJun 13 · 11:25M. Cerny—119119113M. Kulisek—61151122
LJun 12 · 21:20M. Cerny—712291M. Kulisek—111011113
LJun 12 · 19:50M. Cerny—24111142M. Kulisek—111194113
LJun 6 · 20:55M. Cerny—111011892M. Kulisek—412211113
M. Cerny10
WSep 6 · 10:24J. Benak2.104580M. Cerny1.671111113WSep 6 · 09:25D. Bochnak1.619640M. Cerny2.201111113LSep 6 · 08:25M. Cerny1.61912971J. Benak2.20111011113LSep 6 · 06:55D. Vesecky1.8391111113M. Cerny1.83118381WSep 4 · 22:40O. Kadavy1.43912511112M. Cerny2.651110113133LSep 4 · 21:25M. Cerny4.3313790O. Kadavy1.201511113WSep 4 · 19:55D. Bochnak1.6711991282M. Cerny2.105111110103WSep 4 · 19:25J. Zacharda2.255670M. Cerny1.571111113LSep 3 · 22:03M. Kulisek1.9191111133M. Cerny1.801194111LSep 3 · 19:55M. Cerny1.5011101131J. Zacharda2.5013127113
M. Kulisek10
LSep 6 · 21:48D. Hyza1.3611114113M. Kulisek3.00861191LSep 6 · 20:50M. Kulisek2.7577110D. Hyza1.401111133WSep 6 · 19:20M. Sulc2.0081370M. Kulisek1.731115113WSep 6 · 18:50J. Vonasek2.10410110M. Kulisek1.671112133WSep 5 · 22:35M. Brozek1.751212881M. Kulisek1.95141011113WSep 5 · 21:25M. Kulisek2.0017101111113M. Brozek1.7319126672WSep 5 · 19:55A. Rek1.83119781M. Kulisek1.8381111113LSep 5 · 19:25O. Fiklik2.00971211113M. Kulisek1.73111110672WSep 3 · 22:03M. Kulisek1.9191111133M. Cerny1.801194111LSep 3 · 20:25D. Bochnak1.17611711113M. Kulisek4.5011911992
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