TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13071354
Played Sep 3Finished
Martin Cerny
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
11131012117311––
Jachym Zacharda
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:40 and never touched — 65.3% is still 65.3%
Graded at full timeMartin Cerny to win
65.3%
65.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMartin Cerny above · Jachym Zacharda below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 78 set 4, 3-11 — our read held Martin Cerny at 65.3%
78 points played in total.
H2H Martin Cerny 13–12 Jachym Zacharda Jachym Zacharda has won 12 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:40What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Cerny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-12 in 25
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cerny 1891 vs Zacharda 1646
Cerny
Wrong
both rated, 245 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cerny 60% vs Zacharda 40%
Cerny
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cerny 80% vs Zacharda 30%
Cerny
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cerny -1 · Zacharda +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Cerny)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCerny 1.50 / Zacharda 2.50
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Cerny)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13071354
Cerny1.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite65% won 168 of 259
Up 2–0, closes it98% 79 of 81
Up 1–0, closes it85% 115 of 136
Zacharda2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog30% won 14 of 46
Down 0–1, comes back4% 1 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCerny7wins
AwayZacharda3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderCerny leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCerny100%6 of 6
AwayZacharda75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cerny6Zacharda4n = 10Cerny took 6 of 10
S2Cerny4Zacharda6n = 10Zacharda took 6 of 10
S3Cerny7Zacharda3n = 10Cerny took 7 of 10
S4Cerny3Zacharda3n = 6split evenly
S5Cerny3Zacharda1n = 4Cerny took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricCernyZachardaC − ZBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.733.4+4.3per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernyZachardaBasisWin rate · lifetime474 / 826 vs 123 / 25357.4%48.6%474 / 826 vs 123 / 253Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernyCerny 1.50/Zacharda 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.3%
Cerny · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Zacharda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 12:55M. Cerny—1111113J. Zacharda—8260
WAug 30 · 09:25M. Cerny—12511113J. Zacharda—1011671
WAug 25 · 14:25M. Cerny—311129113J. Zacharda—115101152
WAug 25 · 13:25M. Cerny—1111113J. Zacharda—5640
LAug 12 · 07:55M. Cerny—7660J. Zacharda—1111113
LAug 7 · 13:25M. Cerny—8780J. Zacharda—1111113
LMay 14 · 14:55M. Cerny—911121052J. Zacharda—1131012113
WMay 13 · 09:25M. Cerny—118118113J. Zacharda—61151142
WApr 17 · 18:34M. Cerny—11811133J. Zacharda—8113111
WApr 17 · 15:55M. Cerny—116611113J. Zacharda—61111882
M. Cerny10
WSep 6 · 10:24J. Benak2.104580M. Cerny1.671111113WSep 6 · 09:25D. Bochnak1.619640M. Cerny2.201111113LSep 6 · 08:25M. Cerny1.61912971J. Benak2.20111011113LSep 6 · 06:55D. Vesecky1.8391111113M. Cerny1.83118381WSep 4 · 22:40O. Kadavy1.43912511112M. Cerny2.651110113133LSep 4 · 21:25M. Cerny4.3313790O. Kadavy1.201511113WSep 4 · 19:55D. Bochnak1.6711991282M. Cerny2.105111110103WSep 4 · 19:25J. Zacharda2.255670M. Cerny1.571111113LSep 3 · 22:03M. Kulisek1.9191111133M. Cerny1.801194111LSep 3 · 20:55M. Cerny1.61614851M. Kulisek2.20111211113
J. Zacharda10
LSep 4 · 22:09D. Bochnak1.40991111123J. Zacharda2.75111194102LSep 4 · 20:55D. Bochnak1.361410511113J. Zacharda3.00121211572LSep 4 · 20:25O. Kadavy1.53116711113J. Zacharda2.3811111292LSep 4 · 19:25J. Zacharda2.255670M. Cerny1.571111113WSep 3 · 22:33D. Bochnak1.331491161J. Zacharda3.2516114113LSep 3 · 21:25J. Zacharda3.001011981D. Bochnak1.3612811113WSep 3 · 19:25M. Kulisek2.389570J. Zacharda1.531111113WSep 2 · 13:55D. Vesecky1.4091080J. Zacharda2.751112113LSep 2 · 12:55J. Zacharda2.208260M. Cerny1.611111113LSep 2 · 11:55J. Zacharda2.758911101D. Vesecky1.4011115123
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