TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13063854
Played Sep 2Finished
Jachym Zacharda
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811211611––––
Martin Cerny
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:26 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeMartin Cerny to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingJachym Zacharda above · Martin Cerny below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 49 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Martin Cerny at 60.5%
49 points played in total.
H2H Jachym Zacharda 12–11 Martin Cerny Martin Cerny has won 11 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:26What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Cerny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-11 in 23
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zacharda 1636 vs Cerny 1907
Cerny
Correct
both rated, 271 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zacharda 20% vs Cerny 80%
Cerny
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zacharda 30% vs Cerny 90%
Cerny
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zacharda -2 · Cerny -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Cerny)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cerny form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZacharda 2.20 / Cerny 1.61
Signal prob.40% / 61%
Edge (Cerny)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13063854
Zacharda2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog30% won 13 of 43
Down 0–1, comes back4% 1 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 16
Cerny1.61
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite65% won 165 of 255
Up 2–0, closes it98% 77 of 79
Up 1–0, closes it84% 112 of 133
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZacharda3wins
AwayCerny7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderCerny leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZacharda75%3 of 4
AwayCerny100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zacharda4Cerny6n = 10Cerny took 6 of 10
S2Zacharda5Cerny5n = 10split evenly
S3Zacharda4Cerny6n = 10Cerny took 6 of 10
S4Zacharda4Cerny2n = 6Zacharda took 4 of 6
S5Zacharda1Cerny4n = 5Cerny took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricZachardaCernyZ − CBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.939.2−4.3per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZachardaCernyBasisWin rate · lifetime121 / 250 vs 472 / 82248.4%57.4%121 / 250 vs 472 / 822Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernyZacharda 2.20/Cerny 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.5%
Cerny · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Cerny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 25 · 14:25J. Zacharda—115101152M. Cerny—311129113
LAug 25 · 13:25J. Zacharda—5640M. Cerny—1111113
WAug 12 · 07:55J. Zacharda—1111113M. Cerny—7660
WAug 7 · 13:25J. Zacharda—1111113M. Cerny—8780
WMay 14 · 14:55J. Zacharda—1131012113M. Cerny—911121052
LMay 13 · 09:25J. Zacharda—61151142M. Cerny—118118113
LApr 17 · 18:34J. Zacharda—8113111M. Cerny—11811133
LApr 17 · 15:55J. Zacharda—61111882M. Cerny—116611113
LApr 10 · 18:00J. Zacharda—8680M. Cerny—1111113
LApr 10 · 15:55J. Zacharda—45141192M. Cerny—1111129113
J. Zacharda10
LSep 4 · 22:09D. Bochnak1.40991111123J. Zacharda2.75111194102LSep 4 · 20:55D. Bochnak1.361410511113J. Zacharda3.00121211572LSep 4 · 20:25O. Kadavy1.53116711113J. Zacharda2.3811111292LSep 4 · 19:25J. Zacharda2.255670M. Cerny1.571111113WSep 3 · 22:33D. Bochnak1.331491161J. Zacharda3.2516114113LSep 3 · 21:25J. Zacharda3.001011981D. Bochnak1.3612811113WSep 3 · 19:55M. Cerny1.5011101131J. Zacharda2.5013127113WSep 3 · 19:25M. Kulisek2.389570J. Zacharda1.531111113WSep 2 · 13:55D. Vesecky1.4091080J. Zacharda2.751112113LSep 2 · 11:55J. Zacharda2.758911101D. Vesecky1.4011115123
M. Cerny10
WSep 6 · 10:24J. Benak2.104580M. Cerny1.671111113WSep 6 · 09:25D. Bochnak1.619640M. Cerny2.201111113LSep 6 · 08:25M. Cerny1.61912971J. Benak2.20111011113LSep 6 · 06:55D. Vesecky1.8391111113M. Cerny1.83118381WSep 4 · 22:40O. Kadavy1.43912511112M. Cerny2.651110113133LSep 4 · 21:25M. Cerny4.3313790O. Kadavy1.201511113WSep 4 · 19:55D. Bochnak1.6711991282M. Cerny2.105111110103WSep 4 · 19:25J. Zacharda2.255670M. Cerny1.571111113LSep 3 · 22:03M. Kulisek1.9191111133M. Cerny1.801194111LSep 3 · 19:55M. Cerny1.5011101131J. Zacharda2.5013127113
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