TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13063775
Played Sep 2Finished
Ales Langer
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811211411––––
Jan Vonasek
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:28 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeJan Vonasek to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAles Langer above · Jan Vonasek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 47 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Jan Vonasek at 60.1%
47 points played in total.
H2H Ales Langer 22–35 Jan Vonasek Ales Langer has won 22 of their 57 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:28What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Vonasek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-35 in 57
Vonasek
Correct
gap of 13 in 57, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Langer 1582 vs Vonasek 1628
Vonasek
Correct
both rated, 46 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Langer 0% vs Vonasek 80%
Vonasek
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Langer 40% vs Vonasek 70%
Vonasek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Langer -5 · Vonasek +2
Langer
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Vonasek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vonasek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLanger 2.25 / Vonasek 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Vonasek)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13063775
Langer2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 67 of 144
Down 0–1, comes back31% 23 of 75
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 33
Vonasek1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite63% won 80 of 128
Up 2–0, closes it95% 37 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it81% 55 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLanger3wins
AwayVonasek7wins
8 of 10 to a deciderVonasek leads 7–3, and 8 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLanger20%1 of 5
AwayVonasek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Langer5Vonasek5n = 10split evenly
S2Langer3Vonasek7n = 10Vonasek took 7 of 10
S3Langer2Vonasek8n = 10Vonasek took 8 of 10
S4Langer7Vonasek2n = 9Langer took 7 of 9
S5Langer3Vonasek5n = 8Vonasek took 5 of 8
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLangerVonasekL − VBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.846.2−4.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLangerVonasekBasisWin rate · lifetime251 / 516 vs 356 / 72248.6%49.3%251 / 516 vs 356 / 722Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VonasekLanger 2.25/Vonasek 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Vonasek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Vonasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 27 · 10:55A. Langer—541111113J. Vonasek—11117762
WAug 26 · 06:55A. Langer—111184133J. Vonasek—541111112
LAug 7 · 06:55A. Langer—91121342J. Vonasek—1191111113
LJul 10 · 17:49A. Langer—1121011112J. Vonasek—311129133
LJul 10 · 16:20A. Langer—991131J. Vonasek—11117113
LJul 8 · 12:55A. Langer—11951272J. Vonasek—9111110113
LJun 3 · 10:45A. Langer—5850J. Vonasek—1111113
WJun 3 · 06:55A. Langer—911911113J. Vonasek—11811882
LMay 27 · 06:55A. Langer—1210711102J. Vonasek—1012118123
LMay 27 · 05:40A. Langer—1210711102J. Vonasek—1012118123
A. Langer10
WSep 4 · 13:29A. Langer2.006111011113O. Fiklik1.7311912982WSep 4 · 12:20A. Langer2.0011711113O. Fiklik1.73911531LSep 4 · 11:20A. Langer2.258116111D. Hyza1.5711911133LSep 4 · 10:20A. Langer2.5058100M. Brozek1.501111123WSep 2 · 13:19A. Langer1.8371411113V. Jr1.871112391WSep 2 · 12:20A. Langer1.801111113V. Jr1.917480LSep 2 · 10:20A. Langer2.3871181142A. Rek1.53113117113LSep 1 · 14:05O. Fiklik1.68713611113A. Langer2.05111111692LSep 1 · 12:55A. Langer2.2591111872A. Rek1.57117811113LSep 1 · 11:55A. Langer1.8011101251V. Jr1.91131210113
J. Vonasek10
WSep 6 · 21:18M. Sulc2.381291181J. Vonasek1.5314118113LSep 6 · 20:20M. Sulc3.2511614113J. Vonasek1.337111271LSep 6 · 19:50D. Hyza1.611111133J. Vonasek2.2086110LSep 6 · 18:50J. Vonasek2.10410110M. Kulisek1.671112133LSep 4 · 09:59J. Vonasek2.20111951A. Rek1.6191111113LSep 4 · 08:55J. Vonasek2.25611114102V. Nadvornik1.57117911123WSep 4 · 07:55J. Vonasek2.38781211113A. Rek1.53111110842LSep 4 · 06:55J. Vonasek2.75711120J. Benak1.401113143LSep 2 · 13:50A. Rek1.5011911113J. Vonasek2.40711871LSep 2 · 12:50J. Vonasek2.38641161A. Rek1.5311114113
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