TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13073058
Played Sep 4Finished
Jan Vonasek
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
71111131214––––
Jan Benak
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:10 and never touched — 64.7% is still 64.7%
Graded at full timeJan Vonasek to win
64.7%
64.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJan Vonasek above · Jan Benak below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 12-14
Point 68 set 3, 12-14 — our read held Jan Vonasek at 64.7%
68 points played in total.
H2H Jan Vonasek 1–4 Jan Benak Jan Vonasek has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:10What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Benak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Benak
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vonasek 1598 vs Benak 1734
Benak
Correct
both rated, 136 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vonasek 60% vs Benak 20%
Vonasek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vonasek 70% vs Benak 30%
Vonasek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vonasek -2 · Benak -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Benak) · live re-read · sealed at 35% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benak form (20%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVonasek 2.75 / Benak 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Benak)+2.4pp
TT Cup · #13073058
Vonasek2.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog37% won 69 of 187
Down 0–1, comes back16% 17 of 107
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 59
Benak1.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 36 of 63
Up 2–0, closes it79% 11 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it76% 19 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeVonasek1wins
AwayBenak4wins
1 of 5 to a deciderBenak leads 4–1, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVonasek33.3%1 of 3
AwayBenakn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vonasek3Benak2n = 5Vonasek took 3 of 5
S2Vonasek1Benak4n = 5Benak took 4 of 5
S3Vonasek1Benak4n = 5Benak took 4 of 5
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away240%
These 5 meetings
MetricVonasekBenakV − BBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match32.036.6−4.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVonasekBenakBasisWin rate · lifetime357 / 728 vs 93 / 16649%56%357 / 728 vs 93 / 166Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.239.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BenakVonasek 2.75/Benak 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.7%
Benak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Benak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 4 · 06:55J. Vonasek—711120J. Benak—1113143
LAug 18 · 08:55J. Vonasek—115721J. Benak—91111113
WJul 25 · 08:25J. Vonasek—1111113J. Benak—7590
LJun 1 · 09:25J. Vonasek—111071292J. Benak—5121110113
LFeb 12 · 08:55J. Vonasek—7880J. Benak—1111113
J. Vonasek10
WSep 6 · 21:18M. Sulc2.381291181J. Vonasek1.5314118113LSep 6 · 20:20M. Sulc3.2511614113J. Vonasek1.337111271LSep 6 · 19:50D. Hyza1.611111133J. Vonasek2.2086110LSep 6 · 18:50J. Vonasek2.10410110M. Kulisek1.671112133LSep 4 · 09:59J. Vonasek2.20111951A. Rek1.6191111113LSep 4 · 08:55J. Vonasek2.25611114102V. Nadvornik1.57117911123WSep 4 · 07:55J. Vonasek2.38781211113A. Rek1.53111110842LSep 2 · 13:50A. Rek1.5011911113J. Vonasek2.40711871LSep 2 · 12:50J. Vonasek2.38641161A. Rek1.5311114113WSep 2 · 11:20A. Langer2.258240J. Vonasek1.571111113
J. Benak10
LSep 6 · 10:24J. Benak2.104580M. Cerny1.671111113WSep 6 · 08:55D. Vesecky1.7391080J. Benak2.001112113WSep 6 · 08:25M. Cerny1.61912971J. Benak2.20111011113WSep 6 · 07:25J. Benak2.631210113143D. Bochnak1.441012811122LSep 4 · 10:28J. Benak1.7114951182V. Nadvornik2.001211113113WSep 4 · 09:25A. Rek2.50611631J. Benak1.5011811113WSep 4 · 08:25J. Benak1.731111117113V. Nadvornik2.0013951152LSep 3 · 10:09M. Brozek2.251114611113J. Benak1.5791611972LSep 3 · 09:25J. Benak1.73131111492P. Benes2.00154711113WSep 3 · 07:55J. Kocab1.83811911102J. Benak1.83113115123
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