TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13073915
Played Sep 4Finished
Jan Vonasek
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
7118111210118114
Adam Martin Rek
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:51 and never touched — 62.4% is still 62.4%
Graded at full timeAdam Martin Rek to win
62.4%
62.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJan Vonasek above · Adam Martin Rek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 93 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Adam Martin Rek at 62.4%
93 points played in total.
H2H Jan Vonasek 26–41 Adam Martin Rek Jan Vonasek has won 26 of their 67 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:51What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Rek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-41 in 67
Rek
Wrong
gap of 15 in 67, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vonasek 1585 vs Rek 1722
Rek
Wrong
both rated, 137 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vonasek 40% vs Rek 80%
Rek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vonasek 60% vs Rek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vonasek -3 · Rek -1
Vonasek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Rek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVonasek 2.38 / Rek 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Rek)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13073915
Vonasek2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 69 of 186
Down 0–1, comes back15% 16 of 105
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 58
Rek1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 102 of 177
Up 2–0, closes it90% 45 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it70% 72 of 103
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVonasek1wins
AwayRek9wins
2 of 10 to a deciderRek leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVonasekn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayRek100%9 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vonasek1Rek9n = 10Rek took 9 of 10
S2Vonasek5Rek5n = 10split evenly
S3Vonasek3Rek7n = 10Rek took 7 of 10
S4Vonasek1Rek5n = 6Rek took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricVonasekRekV − RBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match31.239.7−8.5per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVonasekRekBasisWin rate · lifetime356 / 725 vs 312 / 53749.1%58.1%356 / 725 vs 312 / 537Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RekVonasek 2.38/Rek 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.4%
Rek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Vonasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 2 · 13:50J. Vonasek—711871A. Rek—11911113
LSep 2 · 12:50J. Vonasek—641161A. Rek—11114113
WAug 31 · 13:55J. Vonasek—11118113A. Rek—981191
LAug 31 · 12:50J. Vonasek—51111562A. Rek—118511113
LAug 17 · 14:10J. Vonasek—611571A. Rek—11911113
LAug 17 · 11:55J. Vonasek—89100A. Rek—1111123
LJun 20 · 22:25J. Vonasek—61180A. Rek—1113113
LJun 20 · 20:55J. Vonasek—54120A. Rek—1111143
LJun 14 · 20:20J. Vonasek—68100A. Rek—1111123
LJun 3 · 09:25J. Vonasek—1011111322A. Rek—127915113
J. Vonasek10
WSep 6 · 21:18M. Sulc2.381291181J. Vonasek1.5314118113LSep 6 · 20:20M. Sulc3.2511614113J. Vonasek1.337111271LSep 6 · 19:50D. Hyza1.611111133J. Vonasek2.2086110LSep 6 · 18:50J. Vonasek2.10410110M. Kulisek1.671112133LSep 4 · 09:59J. Vonasek2.20111951A. Rek1.6191111113LSep 4 · 08:55J. Vonasek2.25611114102V. Nadvornik1.57117911123LSep 4 · 06:55J. Vonasek2.75711120J. Benak1.401113143LSep 2 · 13:50A. Rek1.5011911113J. Vonasek2.40711871LSep 2 · 12:50J. Vonasek2.38641161A. Rek1.5311114113WSep 2 · 11:20A. Langer2.258240J. Vonasek1.571111113
A. Rek10
WSep 5 · 22:03O. Fiklik2.2510890A. Rek1.571211113LSep 5 · 20:55A. Rek1.61811861O. Fiklik2.2011411113LSep 5 · 19:55A. Rek1.83119781M. Kulisek1.8381111113LSep 5 · 18:55A. Rek2.50861161M. Brozek1.5011116113WSep 4 · 09:59J. Vonasek2.20111951A. Rek1.6191111113LSep 4 · 09:25A. Rek2.50611631J. Benak1.5011811113LSep 4 · 07:25V. Nadvornik1.8381111113A. Rek1.83118871WSep 2 · 13:50A. Rek1.5011911113J. Vonasek2.40711871WSep 2 · 12:50J. Vonasek2.38641161A. Rek1.5311114113WSep 2 · 11:50A. Rek1.501413113V. Jr2.50121180
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.