TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13086798
Played Sep 6Finished
Martin Sulc
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 10Form at publish
0–10Last 10Lost last 10
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1176111412117––
Jan Vonasek
Away
1.33
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:38 and never touched — 72.5% is still 72.5%
Graded at full timeJan Vonasek to win
72.5%
72.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMartin Sulc above · Jan Vonasek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 79 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Jan Vonasek at 72.5%
79 points played in total.
H2H Martin Sulc 11–41 Jan Vonasek Martin Sulc has won 11 of their 52 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:38What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Vonasek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-41 in 52
Vonasek
Wrong
gap of 30 in 52, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sulc 1454 vs Vonasek 1576
Vonasek
Wrong
both rated, 121 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sulc 0% vs Vonasek 20%
Vonasek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sulc 0% vs Vonasek 30%
Vonasek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sulc -5 · Vonasek -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Vonasek) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vonasek form (20%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSulc 3.25 / Vonasek 1.33
Signal prob.27% / 73%
Edge (Vonasek)+2.4pp
TT Cup · #13086798
Sulc3.25
0%won 0 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 10
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog42% won 74 of 177
Down 0–1, comes back29% 28 of 96
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 56
Vonasek1.33
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite63% won 81 of 129
Up 2–0, closes it95% 38 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it81% 57 of 70
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSulc2wins
AwayVonasek8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderVonasek leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSulcn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayVonasek87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sulc2Vonasek8n = 10Vonasek took 8 of 10
S2Sulc5Vonasek5n = 10split evenly
S3Sulc1Vonasek9n = 10Vonasek took 9 of 10
S4Sulc1Vonasek5n = 6Vonasek took 5 of 6
S5Sulc2Vonasek1n = 3Sulc took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricSulcVonasekS − VBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match31.139.6−8.5per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSulcVonasekBasisWin rate · lifetime332 / 647 vs 357 / 73051.3%48.9%332 / 647 vs 357 / 730Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VonasekSulc 3.25/Vonasek 1.33
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
73.3%
Vonasek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sulc won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 11:50M. Sulc—8350J. Vonasek—1111113
WAug 17 · 10:55M. Sulc—7111110113J. Vonasek—11441282
LAug 7 · 09:25M. Sulc—4780J. Vonasek—1111113
LJul 24 · 08:55M. Sulc—6116101J. Vonasek—11711123
LJun 23 · 21:30M. Sulc—1141081J. Vonasek—61112113
LJun 23 · 19:20M. Sulc—9280J. Vonasek—1111113
LJun 10 · 21:18M. Sulc—611981J. Vonasek—11911113
LJun 10 · 20:20M. Sulc—8550J. Vonasek—1111113
LJun 8 · 20:20M. Sulc—311511122J. Vonasek—117118143
WJun 7 · 20:20M. Sulc—111175133J. Vonasek—991111112
M. Sulc10
LSep 6 · 21:18M. Sulc2.381291181J. Vonasek1.5314118113LSep 6 · 19:20M. Sulc2.0081370M. Kulisek1.731115113LSep 6 · 18:20M. Sulc2.5051181192D. Hyza1.50119118113LSep 2 · 21:20M. Kulisek1.551111127123M. Sulc2.30531411102LSep 2 · 20:20O. Fiklik1.671211113M. Sulc2.1010780LSep 2 · 19:50M. Brozek1.4012118113M. Sulc2.751061191LSep 2 · 18:50M. Sulc2.20125571M. Kulisek1.61101111113LAug 31 · 13:23V. Jr1.7371111113M. Sulc2.00117641LAug 31 · 12:20V. Jr2.101113113M. Sulc1.6781160LAug 31 · 11:50J. Vonasek1.401111113M. Sulc2.758350
J. Vonasek10
WSep 6 · 21:18M. Sulc2.381291181J. Vonasek1.5314118113LSep 6 · 19:50D. Hyza1.611111133J. Vonasek2.2086110LSep 6 · 18:50J. Vonasek2.10410110M. Kulisek1.671112133LSep 4 · 09:59J. Vonasek2.20111951A. Rek1.6191111113LSep 4 · 08:55J. Vonasek2.25611114102V. Nadvornik1.57117911123WSep 4 · 07:55J. Vonasek2.38781211113A. Rek1.53111110842LSep 4 · 06:55J. Vonasek2.75711120J. Benak1.401113143LSep 2 · 13:50A. Rek1.5011911113J. Vonasek2.40711871LSep 2 · 12:50J. Vonasek2.38641161A. Rek1.5311114113WAug 31 · 11:50J. Vonasek1.401111113M. Sulc2.758350
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.