TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13063843
Played Sep 2Finished
Michal Brozek
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1210116811119––
Martin Sulc
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:20 and never touched — 67.9% is still 67.9%
Graded at full timeMichal Brozek to win
67.9%
67.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Brozek above · Martin Sulc below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 78 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Michal Brozek at 67.9%
78 points played in total.
H2H Michal Brozek 11–3 Martin Sulc Martin Sulc has won 3 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:20What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Brozek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-3 in 14
Brozek
Correct
gap of 8 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Brozek 1648 vs Sulc 1492
Brozek
Correct
both rated, 155 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brozek 60% vs Sulc 0%
Brozek
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brozek 50% vs Sulc 30%
Brozek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Brozek +3 · Sulc -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Brozek) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sulc form (0%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrozek 1.40 / Sulc 2.75
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Brozek)+2.4pp
TT Cup · #13063843
Brozek1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite58% won 153 of 264
Up 2–0, closes it88% 79 of 90
Up 1–0, closes it78% 112 of 143
Sulc2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 74 of 177
Down 0–1, comes back30% 28 of 94
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBrozek9wins
AwaySulc1wins
5 of 10 to a deciderBrozek leads 9–1, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBrozek83.3%5 of 6
AwaySulc0%0 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Brozek6Sulc4n = 10Brozek took 6 of 10
S2Brozek8Sulc2n = 10Brozek took 8 of 10
S3Brozek7Sulc3n = 10Brozek took 7 of 10
S4Brozek2Sulc5n = 7Sulc took 5 of 7
S5Brozek5Sulc0n = 5Brozek took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBrozekSulcB − SBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.134.2+6.9per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrozekSulcBasisWin rate · lifetime534 / 1023 vs 338 / 64852.2%52.2%534 / 1023 vs 338 / 648Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BrozekBrozek 1.40/Sulc 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.7%
Brozek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Brozek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 19 · 14:20M. Brozek—1110651M. Sulc—21211113
WMay 26 · 19:20M. Brozek—1111113M. Sulc—1660
WMay 21 · 19:20M. Brozek—1111113M. Sulc—7780
WMay 20 · 22:05M. Brozek—117119113M. Sulc—71131152
WMay 20 · 19:50M. Brozek—911611113M. Sulc—11411892
WMay 17 · 19:20M. Brozek—1111113M. Sulc—7670
WMay 14 · 20:50M. Brozek—131275113M. Sulc—1110111192
WMar 26 · 17:50M. Brozek—61111113M. Sulc—118921
WMar 16 · 19:20M. Brozek—612115123M. Sulc—1110511102
WMar 9 · 20:50M. Brozek—811119113M. Sulc—11681162
M. Brozek10
LSep 5 · 22:35M. Brozek1.751212881M. Kulisek1.95141011113LSep 5 · 21:25M. Kulisek2.0017101111113M. Brozek1.7319126672WSep 5 · 20:25M. Brozek1.5711711113O. Fiklik2.25311871WSep 5 · 18:55A. Rek2.50861161M. Brozek1.5011116113WSep 4 · 14:00D. Hyza1.90135101162M. Brozek1.801111127113LSep 4 · 12:50D. Hyza1.919111211113M. Brozek1.80111310962WSep 4 · 11:50M. Brozek1.611114113O. Fiklik2.2091260WSep 4 · 10:20A. Langer2.5058100M. Brozek1.501111123WSep 3 · 10:09M. Brozek2.251114611113J. Benak1.5791611972LSep 3 · 08:55J. Kocab1.73111011113M. Brozek2.00512341
M. Sulc10
LSep 6 · 21:18M. Sulc2.381291181J. Vonasek1.5314118113WSep 6 · 20:20M. Sulc3.2511614113J. Vonasek1.337111271LSep 6 · 19:20M. Sulc2.0081370M. Kulisek1.731115113LSep 6 · 18:20M. Sulc2.5051181192D. Hyza1.50119118113LSep 2 · 21:20M. Kulisek1.551111127123M. Sulc2.30531411102LSep 2 · 20:20O. Fiklik1.671211113M. Sulc2.1010780LSep 2 · 18:50M. Sulc2.20125571M. Kulisek1.61101111113LAug 31 · 13:23V. Jr1.7371111113M. Sulc2.00117641LAug 31 · 12:20V. Jr2.101113113M. Sulc1.6781160LAug 31 · 11:50J. Vonasek1.401111113M. Sulc2.758350
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