TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13073055
Played Sep 4Finished
Ales Langer
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
5118111012––––
Michal Brozek
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:09 and never touched — 58.7% is still 58.7%
Graded at full timeMichal Brozek to win
58.7%
58.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAles Langer above · Michal Brozek below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 57 set 3, 10-12 — our read held Michal Brozek at 58.7%
57 points played in total.
H2H Ales Langer 9–13 Michal Brozek Ales Langer has won 9 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:09What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Brozek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-13 in 22
Brozek
Correct
gap of 4 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Langer 1642 vs Brozek 1690
Brozek
Correct
both rated, 47 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Langer 40% vs Brozek 60%
Brozek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Langer 40% vs Brozek 80%
Brozek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Langer +2 · Brozek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Brozek) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLanger 2.50 / Brozek 1.50
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Brozek)+3.6pp
TT Cup · #13073055
Langer2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 67 of 146
Down 0–1, comes back30% 23 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 34
Brozek1.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite59% won 157 of 268
Up 2–0, closes it88% 83 of 94
Up 1–0, closes it79% 116 of 147
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLanger3wins
AwayBrozek7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBrozek leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLanger33.3%1 of 3
AwayBrozek71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Langer3Brozek7n = 10Brozek took 7 of 10
S2Langer3Brozek7n = 10Brozek took 7 of 10
S3Langer3Brozek7n = 10Brozek took 7 of 10
S4Langer1Brozek5n = 6Brozek took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricLangerBrozekL − BBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.539.2−5.7per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLangerBrozekBasisWin rate · lifetime253 / 518 vs 536 / 102648.8%52.2%253 / 518 vs 536 / 1026Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BrozekLanger 2.50/Brozek 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.1%
Brozek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Brozek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 8 · 11:55A. Langer—9870M. Brozek—1111113
WJun 12 · 06:55A. Langer—11911133M. Brozek—8116111
LMay 27 · 07:40A. Langer—11710111M. Brozek—91112133
LOct 25 · 11:55A. Langer—6970M. Brozek—1111113
LOct 22 · 09:25A. Langer—12770M. Brozek—1411113
LOct 21 · 07:25A. Langer—117781M. Brozek—91111113
WOct 4 · 15:25A. Langer—811111083M. Brozek—11981212
LSep 6 · 18:05A. Langer—9660M. Brozek—1111113
WSep 6 · 16:55A. Langer—813124113M. Brozek—1111101182
LJul 16 · 10:20A. Langer—411781M. Brozek—11911113
A. Langer10
WSep 4 · 13:29A. Langer2.006111011113O. Fiklik1.7311912982WSep 4 · 12:20A. Langer2.0011711113O. Fiklik1.73911531LSep 4 · 11:20A. Langer2.258116111D. Hyza1.5711911133WSep 2 · 13:19A. Langer1.8371411113V. Jr1.871112391WSep 2 · 12:20A. Langer1.801111113V. Jr1.917480LSep 2 · 11:20A. Langer2.258240J. Vonasek1.571111113LSep 2 · 10:20A. Langer2.3871181142A. Rek1.53113117113LSep 1 · 14:05O. Fiklik1.68713611113A. Langer2.05111111692LSep 1 · 12:55A. Langer2.2591111872A. Rek1.57117811113LSep 1 · 11:55A. Langer1.8011101251V. Jr1.91131210113
M. Brozek10
LSep 5 · 22:35M. Brozek1.751212881M. Kulisek1.95141011113LSep 5 · 21:25M. Kulisek2.0017101111113M. Brozek1.7319126672WSep 5 · 20:25M. Brozek1.5711711113O. Fiklik2.25311871WSep 5 · 18:55A. Rek2.50861161M. Brozek1.5011116113WSep 4 · 14:00D. Hyza1.90135101162M. Brozek1.801111127113LSep 4 · 12:50D. Hyza1.919111211113M. Brozek1.80111310962WSep 4 · 11:50M. Brozek1.611114113O. Fiklik2.2091260WSep 3 · 10:09M. Brozek2.251114611113J. Benak1.5791611972LSep 3 · 08:55J. Kocab1.73111011113M. Brozek2.00512341LSep 3 · 08:25P. Benes1.80101111133M. Brozek1.911289111
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