TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13060441
Played Sep 2Finished
Ales Langer
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711113811117411
Adam Martin Rek
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:13 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAdam Martin Rek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAles Langer above · Adam Martin Rek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 84 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Adam Martin Rek at 54.0%
84 points played in total.
H2H Ales Langer 28–26 Adam Martin Rek Adam Martin Rek has won 26 of their 54 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:13What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Rek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
28-26 in 54
Langer
Wrong
gap of 2 in 54, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Langer 1604 vs Rek 1686
Rek
Correct
both rated, 82 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Langer 20% vs Rek 40%
Rek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Langer 50% vs Rek 70%
Rek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Langer -4 · Rek -1
Langer
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Rek) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rek form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLanger 2.38 / Rek 1.53
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Rek)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13060441
Langer2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 67 of 144
Down 0–1, comes back31% 23 of 75
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 33
Rek1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 98 of 173
Up 2–0, closes it90% 43 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it69% 68 of 99
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLanger5wins
AwayRek5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLanger66.7%2 of 3
AwayRek57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Langer3Rek7n = 10Rek took 7 of 10
S2Langer6Rek4n = 10Langer took 6 of 10
S3Langer5Rek5n = 10split evenly
S4Langer5Rek3n = 8Langer took 5 of 8
S5Langer1Rek2n = 3Rek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLangerRekL − RBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.337.8+0.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLangerRekBasisWin rate · lifetime251 / 514 vs 310 / 53648.8%57.8%251 / 514 vs 310 / 536Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RekLanger 2.38/Rek 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64%
Rek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Rek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 12:55A. Langer—91111872A. Rek—117811113
WAug 30 · 16:20A. Langer—81112123A. Rek—11910101
WAug 15 · 18:25A. Langer—71111133A. Rek—1147111
WAug 15 · 16:55A. Langer—11118113A. Rek—771171
LAug 6 · 07:55A. Langer—81100A. Rek—1111123
LJul 31 · 13:23A. Langer—11911892A. Rek—911311113
LJul 31 · 12:50A. Langer—711861A. Rek—11411113
LJun 24 · 10:30A. Langer—8590A. Rek—1111113
WJun 24 · 06:55A. Langer—811711113A. Rek—11911592
WJun 21 · 08:20A. Langer—11911113A. Rek—411881
A. Langer10
WSep 4 · 13:29A. Langer2.006111011113O. Fiklik1.7311912982WSep 4 · 12:20A. Langer2.0011711113O. Fiklik1.73911531LSep 4 · 11:20A. Langer2.258116111D. Hyza1.5711911133LSep 4 · 10:20A. Langer2.5058100M. Brozek1.501111123WSep 2 · 13:19A. Langer1.8371411113V. Jr1.871112391WSep 2 · 12:20A. Langer1.801111113V. Jr1.917480LSep 2 · 11:20A. Langer2.258240J. Vonasek1.571111113LSep 1 · 14:05O. Fiklik1.68713611113A. Langer2.05111111692LSep 1 · 12:55A. Langer2.2591111872A. Rek1.57117811113LSep 1 · 11:55A. Langer1.8011101251V. Jr1.91131210113
A. Rek10
WSep 5 · 22:03O. Fiklik2.2510890A. Rek1.571211113LSep 5 · 20:55A. Rek1.61811861O. Fiklik2.2011411113LSep 5 · 19:55A. Rek1.83119781M. Kulisek1.8381111113LSep 5 · 18:55A. Rek2.50861161M. Brozek1.5011116113WSep 4 · 09:59J. Vonasek2.20111951A. Rek1.6191111113LSep 4 · 09:25A. Rek2.50611631J. Benak1.5011811113LSep 4 · 07:55J. Vonasek2.38781211113A. Rek1.53111110842LSep 4 · 07:25V. Nadvornik1.8381111113A. Rek1.83118871WSep 2 · 13:50A. Rek1.5011911113J. Vonasek2.40711871WSep 1 · 12:55A. Langer2.2591111872A. Rek1.57117811113
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