TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13065053
Played Sep 2Finished
Adam Martin Rek
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117911118117––
Jan Vonasek
Away
2.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:22 and never touched — 63.1% is still 63.1%
Graded at full timeAdam Martin Rek to win
63.1%
63.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAdam Martin Rek above · Jan Vonasek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 75 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Adam Martin Rek at 63.1%
75 points played in total.
H2H Adam Martin Rek 40–26 Jan Vonasek Jan Vonasek has won 26 of their 66 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:22What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (62%)
Rek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
40-26 in 66
Rek
Correct
gap of 14 in 66, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rek 1723 vs Vonasek 1610
Rek
Correct
both rated, 113 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rek 80% vs Vonasek 60%
Rek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rek 70% vs Vonasek 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rek +3 · Vonasek -1
Rek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Rek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vonasek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRek 1.50 / Vonasek 2.40
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Rek)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13065053
Rek1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 98 of 173
Up 2–0, closes it90% 43 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it69% 68 of 99
Vonasek2.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog38% won 69 of 184
Down 0–1, comes back16% 16 of 103
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRek8wins
AwayVonasek2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderRek leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRek100%8 of 8
AwayVonasekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rek8Vonasek2n = 10Rek took 8 of 10
S2Rek5Vonasek5n = 10split evenly
S3Rek7Vonasek3n = 10Rek took 7 of 10
S4Rek4Vonasek2n = 6Rek took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricRekVonasekR − VBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.231.7+7.5per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRekVonasekBasisWin rate · lifetime313 / 539 vs 356 / 72358.1%49.2%313 / 539 vs 356 / 723Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RekRek 1.50/Vonasek 2.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.1%
Rek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Rek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 12:50A. Rek—11114113J. Vonasek—641161
LAug 31 · 13:55A. Rek—981191J. Vonasek—11118113
WAug 31 · 12:50A. Rek—118511113J. Vonasek—51111562
WAug 17 · 14:10A. Rek—11911113J. Vonasek—611571
WAug 17 · 11:55A. Rek—1111123J. Vonasek—89100
WJun 20 · 22:25A. Rek—1113113J. Vonasek—61180
WJun 20 · 20:55A. Rek—1111143J. Vonasek—54120
WJun 14 · 20:20A. Rek—1111123J. Vonasek—68100
WJun 3 · 09:25A. Rek—127915113J. Vonasek—1011111322
LMay 30 · 07:55A. Rek—7711121J. Vonasek—11112143
A. Rek10
WSep 5 · 22:03O. Fiklik2.2510890A. Rek1.571211113LSep 5 · 20:55A. Rek1.61811861O. Fiklik2.2011411113LSep 5 · 19:55A. Rek1.83119781M. Kulisek1.8381111113LSep 5 · 18:55A. Rek2.50861161M. Brozek1.5011116113WSep 4 · 09:59J. Vonasek2.20111951A. Rek1.6191111113LSep 4 · 09:25A. Rek2.50611631J. Benak1.5011811113LSep 4 · 07:55J. Vonasek2.38781211113A. Rek1.53111110842LSep 4 · 07:25V. Nadvornik1.8381111113A. Rek1.83118871WSep 2 · 12:50J. Vonasek2.38641161A. Rek1.5311114113WSep 2 · 11:50A. Rek1.501413113V. Jr2.50121180
J. Vonasek10
WSep 6 · 21:18M. Sulc2.381291181J. Vonasek1.5314118113LSep 6 · 20:20M. Sulc3.2511614113J. Vonasek1.337111271LSep 6 · 19:50D. Hyza1.611111133J. Vonasek2.2086110LSep 6 · 18:50J. Vonasek2.10410110M. Kulisek1.671112133LSep 4 · 09:59J. Vonasek2.20111951A. Rek1.6191111113LSep 4 · 08:55J. Vonasek2.25611114102V. Nadvornik1.57117911123WSep 4 · 07:55J. Vonasek2.38781211113A. Rek1.53111110842LSep 4 · 06:55J. Vonasek2.75711120J. Benak1.401113143LSep 2 · 12:50J. Vonasek2.38641161A. Rek1.5311114113WSep 2 · 11:20A. Langer2.258240J. Vonasek1.571111113
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