TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13050068
Played Aug 31Finished
Vaclav Hejda Jr
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181311116––––
Martin Sulc
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:03 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeMartin Sulc to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVaclav Hejda Jr above · Martin Sulc below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 60 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Martin Sulc at 56.2%
60 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Hejda Jr 20–20 Martin Sulc Dead even across their 40 meetings.
Last 10 · 6–4Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:03What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Sulc
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-20 in 40
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1536 vs Sulc 1530
Jr
Correct
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 20% vs Sulc 40%
Sulc
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 50% vs Sulc 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr -2 · Sulc -3
Sulc
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Sulc)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sulc form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 2.10 / Sulc 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Sulc)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13050068
Jr2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 86 of 187
Down 0–1, comes back28% 23 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 35
Sulc1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 67 of 109
Up 2–0, closes it97% 32 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it71% 45 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJr6wins
AwaySulc4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderJr leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJr66.7%4 of 6
AwaySulc50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr6Sulc4n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S2Jr6Sulc4n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S3Jr6Sulc4n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S4Jr2Sulc2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricJrSulcJ − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match32.531.7+0.8per matchSweeps42+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrSulcBasisWin rate · lifetime379 / 782 vs 338 / 64648.5%52.3%379 / 782 vs 338 / 646Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.237.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SulcJr 2.10/Sulc 1.67
Miss
What we said
56.2%
Sulc · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 31 · 12:20V. Jr—1113113M. Sulc—81160
LAug 17 · 14:40V. Jr—2450M. Sulc—1111113
LAug 17 · 12:25V. Jr—1123101M. Sulc—91111123
WAug 17 · 09:25V. Jr—1111113M. Sulc—2990
WAug 11 · 14:40V. Jr—611118113M. Sulc—11771192
LAug 11 · 13:25V. Jr—11681282M. Sulc—7111110113
WAug 10 · 12:50V. Jr—1111113M. Sulc—4520
WAug 7 · 07:25V. Jr—1112123M. Sulc—710100
LAug 3 · 12:50V. Jr—7630M. Sulc—1111113
WAug 1 · 17:25V. Jr—111111113M. Sulc—131881
V. Jr10
LSep 2 · 13:19A. Langer1.8371411113V. Jr1.871112391LSep 2 · 12:20A. Langer1.801111113V. Jr1.917480LSep 2 · 11:50A. Rek1.501413113V. Jr2.50121180LSep 2 · 10:50V. Jr2.00712571J. Vonasek1.73111011113WSep 1 · 14:35V. Jr2.5011115183A. Rek1.487611161WSep 1 · 13:25V. Jr2.38511714113O. Fiklik1.53117111292WSep 1 · 11:55A. Langer1.8011101251V. Jr1.91131210113WSep 1 · 11:25A. Rek1.50861161V. Jr2.5011118113WAug 31 · 13:23V. Jr1.7371111113M. Sulc2.00117641LAug 31 · 11:20V. Jr2.3891180A. Rek1.531113113
M. Sulc10
LSep 6 · 21:18M. Sulc2.381291181J. Vonasek1.5314118113WSep 6 · 20:20M. Sulc3.2511614113J. Vonasek1.337111271LSep 6 · 19:20M. Sulc2.0081370M. Kulisek1.731115113LSep 6 · 18:20M. Sulc2.5051181192D. Hyza1.50119118113LSep 2 · 21:20M. Kulisek1.551111127123M. Sulc2.30531411102LSep 2 · 20:20O. Fiklik1.671211113M. Sulc2.1010780LSep 2 · 19:50M. Brozek1.4012118113M. Sulc2.751061191LSep 2 · 18:50M. Sulc2.20125571M. Kulisek1.61101111113LAug 31 · 13:23V. Jr1.7371111113M. Sulc2.00117641LAug 31 · 11:50J. Vonasek1.401111113M. Sulc2.758350
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